DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Some Fertilizers Near 7-Year Lows

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Potash prices have sunk to their lowest level since DTN began surveying retailers in 2008. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Fertilizer prices continued to drift lower the fourth week of November 2015, according to retailers tracked by DTN. Some fertilizer retail prices are at or are closing in on historic lows.

All of the eight major fertilizers slipped lower compared to a month earlier, but none were down significantly. DAP has an average price of $543 per ton, MAP $556/ton, potash $422/ton, urea $397/ton, 10-34-0 $580/ton, anhydrous $624/ton, UAN28 $286/ton and UAN32 $325/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.43/lb.N, anhydrous $0.38/lb.N, UAN28 $0.51/lb.N and UAN32 $0.51/lb.N.

While fertilizers and other inputs have been slow to adjust to the crash in commodity prices since 2012, some are breaking new ground: Weekly DTN surveys of national average retail fertilizer prices since November 2008 show lows for most fertilizers were seen in either 2009 or 2010, with three lows set in November 2009 alone.

However, there were a couple exceptions. One would be potash, which is at the lowest price in more than seven years. Last week's price of $422 per ton is now DTN's all-time low for potash. Before this recent move, the lowest price in our dataset occurred in August 2010 with an average of $467 per ton.

Another fertilizer nearing a DTN all-time low would be urea. The nitrogen fertilizer, with an average last week of $397 per ton, dropped below $400 per ton for the first time since June 2009 when the average price was at $390 per ton. The all-time low for urea is $375 per ton in October 2009.

The remaining six fertilizers all have current retail prices which will have to move considerably to reach record lows.

DAP, with an average price of $543/ton now, has a seven-year low of $362/ton reached during the second week of November 2009. MAP, with an average price of $556/ton now, reached its low of $386/ton the first week of November 2009.

10-34-0, with an average price of $580/ton currently, is nowhere near its low of $381/ton seen the fourth week of December 2009. Anhydrous, with a current price of $624/ton, has a low of $410/ton seen on the first week of November 2009.

UAN28, with the current price of $286/ton, has a low price of $199/ton from third week of August 2009. UAN32, currently at $325/ton, has a low of $231/ton seen the first week of September 2009.

With retail fertilizer moving lower in recent months, only one fertilizer is now higher compared to a year earlier. 10-34-0 is 3% higher than last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. DAP is now 6% lower, MAP is 7% less expensive and UAN28 is 11% lower. Anhydrous, potash and UAN32 are all 12% less expensive while urea is 19% less expensive from a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Nov 24-28 2014 576 595 480 492
Dec 22-26 2014 566 593 485 462
Jan 19-23 2015 568 596 487 469
Feb 16-20 2015 568 597 495 472
Mar 16-20 2015 570 597 490 470
Apr 13-17 2015 570 598 491 453
May 11-15 2015 570 598 491 457
June 8-12 2015 571 598 491 461
July 6-10 2015 570 596 489 470
Aug 3-7 2015 567 591 482 464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015 564 583 471 439
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015 561 573 450 424
Oct 26-30 2015 546 562 431 409
Nov 23-27 2015 543 556 422 397
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Nov 24-28 2014 564 712 323 368
Dec 22-26 2014 573 706 320 362
Jan 19-23 2015 585 707 326 367
Feb 16-20 2015 593 706 330 370
Mar 16-20 2015 614 705 332 368
Apr 13-17 2015 649 711 332 370
May 11-15 2015 653 711 331 371
June 8-12 2015 649 709 331 371
July 6-10 2015 640 695 327 366
Aug 3-7 2015 628 677 318 354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015 602 659 304 349
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015 594 644 295 342
Oct 26-30 2015 583 638 292 334
Nov 23-27 2015 580 624 286 325

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/AG)

Russ Quinn