DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Fertilizer prices continue to slip lower and some have hit historically low levels, according to retailers tracked by DTN for the fourth week of September.

Only one fertilizer had a price decline of any significance in the last few weeks. Potash dropped 5% compared to last month with an average price of $454/ton. The remaining seven fertilizers tracked by DTN dipped in price during this period, but only slightly.

DAP averaged $562/ton, MAP $575/ton, urea $428/ton, 10-34-0 $589/ton, anhydrous $646/ton, UAN28 $297/ton and UAN32 $343/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.47/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.53/lb.N and UAN32 $0.54/lb.N.

Fertilizer prices are moving lower but the question is how current prices compared to the historic trend. Potash's average price ($454/ton) is now at the lowest level in the history of the DTN retail fertilizer data set, which has recorded prices since November 2008. Before now, the lowest average price for potash was at $467/ton, the last week of August 2010.

Other fertilizers with fairly historical low retail prices would be UAN28, UAN32 and urea.

UAN28's average price of $297/ton was the first time sub-$300/ton has been seen since the second week of September 2010, when the average price was $296/ton. While the price now is below $300/ton, UAN28 slid as low as $199/ton in August 2009.

UAN32 is at its lowest price level ($343/ton) since the first week of October 2010 when the average price was at $338/ton. Its lowest price occurred the third week of November 2009 with an average price of $244/ton.

Urea has also seen its price move into fairly historic low levels. The nitrogen fertilizer's average price ($428/ton) is the lowest price since the third week of July 2010. That week the average price was at $367/ton.

The remaining four fertilizers have lower retail prices historically but these levels have been matched the last couple of years.

Both DAP ($562/ton) and MAP ($575/ton) are at their lowest prices since the last week of February 2014. DAP's average price that week was at $542/ton and MAP was at $561/ton.

Anhydrous prices ($646/ton) are currently at the lowest levels since March 2014. The average price then was $633/ton.

Interestingly, the current anhydrous price is not anywhere near the all-time low price for the nitrogen fertilizer. That was achieved in the first week of September 2009 when the average price was at $409/ton.

The fertilizer that has declined the least would be starter fertilizer, 10-34-0, which is not a major surprise. Starter fertilizer's price ($589/ton) continues to be elevated after seeing a sizeable increase earlier this year because of a shortage of acid used to make the fertilizer.

With retail fertilizer prices moving lower in recent weeks, only one fertilizer is now higher compared to a year earlier. 10-34-0 is 6% higher compared to last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. DAP is 3% lower, both MAP and potash are 4% less expensive, anhydrous is 7% lower, UAN32 is 9% less expensive, UAN28 is 10% lower and urea is 16% less expensive from a year previous.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Sept 22-26 2014	579	600	473	510
Oct 20-24 2014	582	599	478	507
Nov 17-21 2014	576	595	480	493
Dec 15-19 2014	565	592	483	461
Jan 12-16 2015	566	594	486	465
Feb 9-13 2015	569	597	488	473
Mar 9-13 2015	570	597	489	471
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	570	598	491	461
May 4-8 2015	570	598	491	457
June 1-5 2015	570	598	491	461
June 29-July 3 2015	570	596	490	469
July 27-31 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 24-28 2015	567	586	476	447
Sept 21-25 2015	562	575	454	428
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Sept 22-26 2014	555	694	329	377
Oct 20-24 2014	557	697	327	367
Nov 17-21 2014	560	709	322	366
Dec 15-19 2014	572	705	322	362
Jan 12-16 2015	582	710	325	364
Feb 9-13 2015	589	707	330	370
Mar 9-13 2015	626	706	331	371
Apr 6-Apr 10 2015	648	709	333	370
May 4-8 2015	653	711	331	371
June 1-5 2015	650	710	331	371
June 29-July 3 2015	642	705	330	369
July 27-31 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 24-28 2015	609	667	309	350
Sept 21-25 2015	589	646	297	343

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/CZ)

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