DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to move higher the last week of March 2016, which has been the trend in recent weeks, according to prices tracked by DTN.

Six of the eight major fertilizers edged higher compared to a month earlier. The only fertilizer up any significance is anhydrous, which is 8% above a month earlier. Anhydrous averaged $580 per ton.

Five other fertilizers were higher compared to last month, but the move to the high side was fairly small. DAP averaged $478/ton, MAP $501/ton, urea $386/ton, UAN28 $268/ton and UAN32 $315/ton.

Two fertilizers were lower in price, but the move lower was fairly slight. Potash averaged $370/ton while 10-34-0 was at $561/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.35/lb.N, UAN28 $0.48/lb.N and UAN32 $0.49/lb.N.

In a recent audio report titled "Declining Fertilizer Prices," University of Wisconsin Extension soil scientist Carrie Laboski explains how the decrease in fertilizer prices affects farmers and what causes the price of fertilizer to fluctuate.

Laboski reported fertilizers have declined some but crop producers will still have profitability concerns with this year's crops.

"We're seeing from late fall until spring, maybe a 20% reduction in some fertilizer prices, not all," Laboski said. "And that is a good thing for the farmer. Unfortunately, it's probably not enough to close the gap between the cost of production and what they'll earn on their crops."

There are several factors affecting the price of fertilizer, she said. The price of natural gas affects the price of fertilizer as natural gas is required in the production of fertilizer materials. Fertilizer also tends to follow the price of grains as well, she added.

Laboski said UW Extension can help farmers survive the volatility in the fertilizer market by utilizing their nitrogen rate guidelines, which is price-adjusted.

"Our data that we collect through our research trials, we evaluate that and we evaluate that through the lens of economics," she said. "So we're not looking for maximum production, we're looking for maximum economic production, so maximizing profitability."

The UW report can be found here: http://fyi.uwex.edu/…

Despite the recent price bump in some retail fertilizers, all products remain double digits lower compared to a year ago. 10-34-0 now 13% lower.

UAN32 is 15% lower compared to a year earlier while DAP, MAP and urea are all now 16% less expensive. In addition, anhydrous is 18% lower, UAN28 is 19% less expensive and potash is 25% lower compared to a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Mar 30-Apr 3 2015	569	598	491	462
Apr 27-May 1 2015	571	598	492	455
May 25-29 2015	570	597	492	459
June 22-26 2015	572	597	490	469
July 20-24 2015	569	594	487	469
Aug 17-21 2015	568	587	477	448
Sept 14-18 2015	563	579	462	432
Oct 12-16 2015	547	564	440	418
Nov 9-13 2015	547	561	426	405
Dec 7-11 2015	534	555	417	397
Jan 4-8 2016	495	521	392	381
Feb 1-5 2016	488	502	381	370
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	476	492	373	374
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	478	501	370	386
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Mar 30-Apr 3 2015	642	708	333	370
Apr 27-May 1 2015	652	711	332	371
May 25-29 2015	650	710	332	371
June 22-26 2015	641	690	330	369
July 20-24 2015	636	689	324	354
Aug 17-21 2015	611	667	309	349
Sept 14-18 2015	593	653	300	345
Oct 12-16 2015	584	640	295	338
Nov 9-13 2015	581	631	289	332
Dec 7-11 2015	575	625	284	330
Jan 4-8 2016	572	582	273	316
Feb 1-5 2016	549	555	263	305
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016	566	537	260	309
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016	561	580	268	315

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.