EIA Ethanol, Biodiesel Outlook

OAKHURST, N.J. (DTN) --- The Energy Information Administration in its latest monthly report reiterated that ethanol production, which averaged 934,000 bpd in 2014, would average more than 950,000 bpd in both 2015 and 2016.

In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency said ethanol consumption, which averaged 877,000 bpd in 2014, is forecast to average slightly more than 900,000 bpd in both 2015 and 2016 resulting in an average 9.9% ethanol share of the total gasoline pool. This forecast mirrored the September estimate. EIA again said it does not expect significant increases in E15 or E85 consumption over the forecast period.

"On May 29, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed a rule setting Renewable Fuel Standard targets for 2014 through 2016. Although these targets could be modified before the final rule is issued, they are used in developing the current STEO," EIA said.

EIA continues to say the proposed RFS targets could encourage imports of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, which were 3,000 bpd in 2014.

EIA reiterated that it expects the largest effect of the proposed RFS targets to be on biodiesel consumption, which contributes to meeting the biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel and total renewable fuel RFS targets.

Biodiesel production averaged an estimated 83,000 bpd in 2014 and is forecast to average 92,000 bpd in 2015, slightly higher than last month's estimate, and 98,000 bpd in 2016, steady with September's outlook.

Net imports of biomass-based diesel are also expected to increase from 15,000 bpd in 2014 to 25,000 bpd this year and 35,000 bpd next year. This compares with estimates last month at 23,000 bpd and 35,000 bpd, respectively.

The agency estimates that carbon dioxide emissions grew 1.0% in 2014 and are projected to decrease by 0.7% this year and then rise by 0.2% in 2016. These forecasts are sensitive to both weather and economic assumptions.