Flip a Coin on ARC, PLC

Farm Program's Dueling Computers

Any year you'd plug $4 per bushel into the Texas A&M's farm bill calculator, corn actually has a 40% chance of hitting $3.70 or less and triggering a PLC payment. Those odds are based on historical patterns since 1982 and the model's 500 price simulations. In fact, prices ranged from near $7.50 to $2 in this simulation, demonstrating the price risks in grain markets. (Chart courtesy of Texas A&M)
Any year you'd plug $4 per bushel into the Texas A&M's farm bill calculator, corn actually has a 40% chance of hitting $3.70 or less and triggering a PLC payment. Those odds are based on historical patterns since 1982 and the model's 500 price simulations. In fact, prices ranged from near $7.50 to $2 in this simulation, demonstrating the price risks in grain markets. (Chart courtesy of Texas A&M)
Calculators may offer conflicting advice based on economic models and methodology. FSA's official calculators analyze a range of 500 prices and yield probabilities, others a single price and yield. Some include crop insurance and others not. Some models give higher...

Subscriber-Only Content

To read the Full Story, upgrade your account to a FREE trial of MyDTN today.

  • Exclusive access to comprehensive, customized insight anytime, anywhere
  • If you're a Community user, all of your settings will transfer into your trial
Start your free MyDTN demo 
P[] D[728x170] M[320x75] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

DIM[1x3] LBL[article-box] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]

P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]