DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...93 AT EL MONTE, CA

LOW MON...12 AT MAMMOTH LAKES, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST MONDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 2.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of North America with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The trough is sending three pieces of energy east through the U.S. this week, which will deepen for a brief period in the East before pushing offshore this weekend and being replaced by the ridge next week. The Gulf of Alaska trough will move more toward the West Coast this weekend and bring multiple waves east through the U.S. next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will be rising next week, though they should be cooler in the West and Southeast. A system will probably go through the Gulf Coast states early next week. A bigger storm is looking likely for the Central later next week, but could be delayed until next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Outside of a few showers moving through on Tuesday, it should continue to be warm and dry through the weekend. Scattered showers may develop next week with a system or two moving through.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moving through on Tuesday night and Wednesday is expected to remain dry while bringing through a brief burst of milder air. Warmer air returns over the weekend and increases next week. The weather pattern looks to become more active next week with more periods of showers moving through, helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front and small system will move through on Wednesday, producing scattered showers for the region.

Colder air will fill in behind the front and system, which should produce lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. Warmer temperatures will spread through the region next week and we could see a bigger storm system moving through later in the week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the region. Some limited showers will move through on Wednesday, but will not be heavy as drought remains a problem. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, but may take until the end of the week to get showers into this area. The Mississippi River got a nice boost from previous rain across the Midwest last week, but the continued dryness may take its toll if the weather pattern doesn't improve rain chances in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front stalled in central Brazil will continue showers throughout the week, and another system may enhance showers at the end of the week, but this rain needs to verify. Showers have been coming frequently enough, but amounts have been below normal in central Brazil and have not lived up to the forecast so far. If they continue to come at a below-normal clip, soybeans will have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas have been too wet, but rainfall through the weekend is more limited.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of showers went through over the weekend and brought in another round of cooler air. Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn thus far. With soybean planting increasing in November, the frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while yet.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Several systems moving through this week should produce more widespread precipitation across the continent, including over Spain, which really needs the rain for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern may continue to be busy through next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern will become a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers.

However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): It was overall dry this weekend, favoring drydown and early harvest of winter wheat and canola. Some disturbances will move through this week and produce limited areas of showers, but most areas should stay dry. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through central China over the weekend, favorable for winter wheat and canola development, but causing some delays to what remains of corn and soybean harvest. With another round of showers moving through south-central China later this week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday night to early Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers in Texas. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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