Commodities Market Impact Weather

A drier period in the U.S. with mild to warm temperatures, a forecast of better rainfall in central Brazil that is sorely needed, and recent heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

DRIER IN THE MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

The remnants of a low-pressure system continue to shift through the Midwest through Friday, but any rain should be rather light. Despite some delays to fieldwork from this week's system, soil moisture should be improving for some areas that grow winter wheat and help with the drought in some areas of the region. These delays are likely to be short with warm and dry weather moving back in this weekend and into next week. A cold front may go through in the middle of next week with some isolated showers and cooler air in the east, but that would be brief and warm and dry weather looks to largely continue for the next 10 days.

WARM AND DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some showers fell around Oklahoma on Thursday. And though a few showers will move through Texas over the weekend, it will be drier and warmer in the Central and Southern Plains through next week. Recent precipitation has slowed down fieldwork progress this week, but the warmer and drier forecast should allow for more good progress through next week. The rain is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat and to reduce drought across parts of the south.

WARM AND DRY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

It should be warm and dry across the Northern Plains through next week. That combination will allow for much more fieldwork to be done.

DRYNESS PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR DELTA

A front that moved through this week is helping to boost water levels on the Mississippi River, but massive rainfall deficits continue to be in place across most of the Delta. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months, but it should remain a drier period through next week.

FORECAST RAINFALL IN CENTRAL BRAZIL INCREASING, BUT WILL NEED TO VERIFY

Showers across central Brazil are not falling at the coverage or intensity that models are predicting, or producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central part of the country, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain for the next two weeks. There will be several and there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans. But soil moisture sits on the edge of being just enough and too dry. A turn drier, like what is being forecast at the seasonal range, could have a significant impact on soybeans. Meanwhile, southern areas are getting enough rain to have good conditions, but some areas are too wet, increasing the risks of diseases, weeds, and flooding issues.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

A front pushed through Argentina this week and another will move through this weekend, bringing widespread light showers through the country. There will probably be more showers next week as well. Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November, and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues at a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE NEXT WEEK

A system moved through the eastern Mediterranean Sea with scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe earlier this week, the latter of which really needed the rain. A complicated weather pattern is bringing some batches of showers to western Europe over the next couple of days, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment, especially in Spain. A better chance for widespread rain across the continent will move through next week.

BLACK SEA RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR WINTER WHEAT ESTABLISHMENT

Showers have been somewhat frequent in Ukraine this fall, but western Russia has been very dry. A system moving through the Black Sea is bringing some limited areas of showers through the region into the weekend, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. Conditions are forecast to be mostly dry next week. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA BECOMING LESS BENEFICIAL AS WINTER CROPS MATURE

It should be drier in Australia, though showers will be possible near the east coast into the weekend. A system will likely move through next week with scattered showers in the east as well. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Favorable rain has been falling across south-central China lately, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional rain is forecast there this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north have been much drier, and while some showers will go through some areas this weekend, good harvest weather largely continues for finishing up harvest.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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