DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America. There is a trough in the Plains with another moving into the West Coast. Both troughs will move eastward for the rest of the week. Additional troughs and disturbances will move across the U.S. through next week. This pattern is fairly textbook during El Nino and should be very frequent over the next several months.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The forecast has turned much quieter and drier across much of the U.S. for next week, though some small disturbances moving through the country could produce a few areas of showers. With the background ridge in place, expect temperatures to be largely above normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...97 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...13 AT BURNS, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 6PM CST MONDAY...DAYTONA BEACH, FL 2.01 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America. There is a trough in the Plains with another moving into the West Coast. Both troughs will move eastward for the rest of the week. Additional troughs and disturbances will move across the U.S. through next week. This pattern is fairly textbook during El Nino and should be very frequent over the next several months.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The forecast has turned much quieter and drier across much of the U.S. for next week, though some small disturbances moving through the country could produce a few areas of showers. With the background ridge in place, expect temperatures to be largely above normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system may still get some showers into far eastern parts of the Dakotas through Wednesday, but it should be much drier across the region. It will also be warmer as well. That combination will allow for much more fieldwork to be done.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moving through on Monday produced organized showers and thunderstorms. Some showers are lingering into Tuesday, and a very small system may bring showers around Oklahoma on Thursday, but it will be drier for the rest of the week and probably next week as well. The current precipitation will slow down fieldwork progress a touch, but is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat, and may help to reduce drought across parts of the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system is slowly moving through the region for the rest of the week in a couple of waves. But most of the precipitation will fall through Wednesday. Despite some delays to fieldwork, soil moisture should improve for some areas that grow winter wheat, and should help with the drought in some areas of the region.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and resulted in a couple of pockets of heavier rain, but water levels continue to be fairly low on the Mississippi River. However, a front that moves through on Tuesday night should bring more widespread precipitation not only into the region, but also across the Midwest, which should help with water levels on the Mississippi to at least some degree. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months as well.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Showers across central Brazil are not falling at the coverage or intensity that producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain the first half of November, and there will be several over the next 10 days, and there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans. But soil moisture sits on the edge of being just enough and too dry. A turn drier could have a significant impact on developing soybeans. Meanwhile, southern areas are getting enough rain to have good conditions, but some areas are a bit too wet, increasing the risks of diseases, weeds, and flooding issues.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of fronts will push through the country this week with scattered showers. Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November, and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues as a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system in the eastern Mediterranean Sea produced scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe over the weekend and Monday, the latter of which really needed the rain. The system continues eastward into the Black Sea on Tuesday. A complicated weather pattern may bring some areas of showers to western Europe this week as well, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been somewhat frequent in Ukraine this fall, but western Russia has been very dry. A system moving through the Black Sea may bring some showers through the region this week, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some showers moved through Australia over the weekend and Monday, but were mostly light. It should be drier for the rest of the week. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable rain fell across south-central China over the weekend, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional favorable rain is forecast there this week and again this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north have been much drier, which should continue good harvest weather overall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through Tuesday, north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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