Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A week of dry weather for the U.S. and a continued focus toward South America planting are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MIDWEST STAYING DRY THIS WEEK

It got dry in the Midwest over the weekend and will be dry for most areas this week. That will allow fields to dry out and producers to get back out into the field for harvest, winter wheat planting and other fieldwork.

DRIER WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR FLOODING TO RECEDE

Some rain fell in Texas over the weekend, but drier weather has moved into the Central and Southern Plains and will stick around all week. That will help soils to dry and producers to get out and do fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, some areas did not see very much, and drought is still a big issue in the region. Wet areas will get a chance to drain, but the drier pattern is not favorable for winter wheat establishment. A system will likely move through next week, but the precipitation forecast is uncertain with it.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRY UNTIL WEEKEND

It was drier in the Northern Plains over the weekend and should be dry for most areas this week. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into early next week. If some cold air coincides with the precipitation, there could be some accumulating snow. Models show some potential for this, but not much confidence. Either way, this system will disrupt harvest, but only briefly as the pattern still promotes an overall drier look for October.

DROUGHT STILL BUILDING IN DELTA

A front pushed through the Delta with scattered showers over the weekend, but with very little coverage or intensity. Drought is growing in the region, but heavier rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Dry weather is expected to continue this week, though some models have a tropical system developing in the Gulf later this week that should be monitored.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL CONTINUES TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN

A front kept scattered showers going over central Brazil over the weekend, creating some pockets of heavy rain and disappointing dryness elsewhere. Another front moved through southern areas on Sunday and coverage there was much more widespread with heavy rain. Some areas are a bit too wet in the south, otherwise the good coverage should be overall favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting. The southern front should continue with showers into central Brazil through midweek before coverage gets much more isolated there again. Southern areas will continue to have fronts move in with scattered showers into next week, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers should be weaker this year because of the super El Nino in the Pacific. While not concerning just yet, the forecast is not favorable for the next couple of weeks. Some longer-range models have better coverage for the second half of October, but that is an uncertain forecast.

COOL AND RAINY IN ARGENTINA

A system moved through Argentina over the weekend with widespread showers but light amounts. Temperatures are again falling behind the system and overall, below-normal temperatures continue to plague the country. Though not producing frosts, the cooler temperatures are keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south, and growth and corn planting slow. The positive news for producers is that the weather pattern continues to be quite active and scattered showers are forecast somewhere in the country each day this week. That should help to keep soil moisture up or improving in much of the country.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEK

A system developed on the tail end of a front across Spain over the weekend, producing scattered showers there. Otherwise, Europe was largely dry. The system will move east this week, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent except in the southeast, where it will stay unfavorably drier. The weather pattern will stay active across far northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south will be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA REGION DRIER FOR ANOTHER WEEK

It was dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend. In Ukraine, that helped producers get into the field for planting, but in drier western Russia, soils are a bit too dry in many areas for winter wheat establishment. Very little precipitation is expected until a front moves in on Friday and moves across this weekend. Even so, getting rain south through the region will be tough to do.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

Some showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, but a lot of areas stayed unfavorably dry. A system will move into western areas midweek and then eastern areas for late this week and weekend. While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

LIMITED DISRUPTION TO ONGOING HARVEST IN CHINA

Scattered showers went through central and northeast China over the weekend, causing some disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, it'll be largely dry this week, which should get producers out harvesting. Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment, but more would be favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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