Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the Central U.S., but a turn toward a drier pattern and a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE NEXT FEW DAYS

A front will continue to slowly move across the Midwest this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Areas of heavy rain may be a problem, with Iowa, Missouri, and northern Illinois as the favored targets. Potential for heavy rain is lower elsewhere in the region. If these spots indeed see heavy rain, it will continue to bring problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays. After the front clears the region on Friday, drier weather is in the forecast for the following couple of weeks. Fronts will still push through, and may bring some isolated showers, but overall drier conditions will help areas to drain and fieldwork to resume.

FRONT, REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system and front are combining to produce areas of heavy rain across much of the Central and Southern Plains through Thursday, exiting southeast on Friday. The heavy rain will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting. After this system clears the region, conditions will become much drier for the following couple of weeks, allowing fields to drain and progress to be made.

NORTHERN PLAINS TURNING DRIER

A front has exited the Northern Plains on Tuesday after bringing through some heavy amounts to the Dakotas. The pattern is changing and while a few more fronts will move through over the next couple of weeks, precipitation will be hard to come by. The drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

HARVEST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule in the Canadian Prairies, but conditions are improving for harvest with only spotty showers and overall warmer temperatures for the first half of October.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA LATER THIS WEEK, DROUGHT STILL BUILDING

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops. Dryness following the front will continue to exacerbate the drought conditions as well.

WET SEASON STARTING ON TIME IN BRAZIL WITH SLOW-MOVING FRONT

A front is slowly pushing northward from southern into central Brazil throughout the rest of the week. This slow movement should bring widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting. Despite all the rain chances and coverage from fronts, the daily pop-up type of showers have been lacking and are forecast to be more sparse through the first half of October. If that is indeed the case, we could see dryness concerns developing if the fronts fail to make it north into central Brazil.

STILL TOO COOL IN ARGENTINA, BUT RAIN INCREASING

A system produced widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall across Argentina over the last few days. That would be beneficial, but colder air is following in behind the system. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising much, limiting producers' planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air continues into October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

MUCH OF EUROPE IS STILL TOO DRY FOR WINTER PLANTING AND ESTABLISHMENT

A system is pushing through Europe this week, but with the best rainfall in France and Germany. The front should stall out over Spain though, and showers could continue there into the weekend, which would be favorable. Otherwise, only limited precipitation elsewhere on the continent will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN, CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS

A storm system spinning in the Black Sea has been producing a few showers for the far south, but most areas continue to be dry this week. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly dry the last several weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

Scattered showers went through parts of Western Australia over the weekend and are now bringing some limited showers to eastern areas over the next couple of days. Afterward, very little precipitation is in the forecast. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CHINA MAY DISRUPT HARVEST, FAVOR WINTER PLANTING

The weather pattern is becoming more active across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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