Sort and Cull

If it's not one thing, it's another in the cattle complex. And I so badly miss the days when the market's fundamental and technical indicators influenced trade, and one didn't have to be constantly watching for external pressures or breaking headline news. But the amount of change which the industry and marketplace have endured over the last two years is nearly incomprehensible and won't likely be fully understood for years to come.

Phew -- what an opening paragraph that is! It's far from a breath of fresh air, and deserves further explanation as frankly, the market remains on edge heading into this week's trade once again. So, let's unpack some of the changes in the industry and specifically what developed last week.

First, if you noticed that last week's slaughter was lighter than normal, you weren't wrong. Last week's total slaughter was estimated at 484,000 head (which is the third smallest weekly slaughter for 2026) and is 45,000 head less than the previous week and 74,000 head less than the same week a year ago. Midweek last week, news broke that ICE raids were taking place in Kansas, which led to absenteeism from workers, and affected throughput and consequently the week's total slaughter pace. And lo and behold, it also negatively affected the week's fed cash cattle market as well as packers' interest in the market declined once production started to fall.

Which leads me to our second point of conversation, the sheer fact that Texas and Kansas no longer report cash prices is a big problem. It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that this is where the market sits as it was warned about for years, but how in the world is the market expected to operate transparently when one can't even find what fed cash cattle prices are trading for unless they've been given information from an inside source?

Obviously, these points are problematic for their own rhyme and reason. But perhaps the bigger concern is that, aside from affordable feed and profitability, producers need confidence in the marketplace before they'll rebuild their herds. Right now, that confidence is hard to come by. And as the list of obstacles continues to grow, the cattle market finds itself navigating a set of challenges unlike any it has faced before.

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