Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the U.S. Plains and western Midwest, but a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

WESTERN MIDWEST SEEING MORE RAIN, COULD BE HEAVY AGAIN NEXT WEEK

Eastern areas of the Midwest are drying out while western areas continue to see showers through the weekend. Another front will move through next week with scattered showers, and we will have to watch how slowly a system moves across southern areas behind it next week. Some areas of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially around Missouri and Iowa. That would slow harvest and other fieldwork while other areas of the region may not see large-scale impacts. This is a change to the forecast from earlier this week, and is subject to change again, but heavy rain is not favorable this time of year.

MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A zone of showers and embedded thunderstorms has been moving across the Central and Southern Plains over the last couple of days, producing some areas of moderate to heavy rain. That continues into Saturday and could create some areas of localized flooding or otherwise soggy conditions, slowing fieldwork. Another system is now forecast to slowly move through the region next week, ingesting the remnants of Hurricane Polo from the Pacific. That is likely to produce more widespread rain which again could be heavy in some locations. The recent and forecast rain is not favorable for maturing corn and soybeans, or their harvest, but will be favorable for reducing drought and improving conditions for winter wheat establishment, assuming progress can be made in planting it.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers will continue to sit across the Dakotas through Saturday with another system moving through with somewhat more widespread rain for Monday and Tuesday. The recent and forecast rain is helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

HARVEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BUT PACE STILL WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, and recent rain has produced quality issues in the Canadian Prairies. However, drier and warmer conditions this week have been more favorable. A system moving through on Friday and Saturday may only produce meaningful precipitation in Alberta, with drier conditions elsewhere that would remain favorable. The weather pattern continues to be active next week with a couple of systems moving through, though widespread rain is not in the forecast. Producers may still have a difficult time catching up with harvest.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE DRY, BUT MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS STABLE

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily. Though some spotty showers will move through on Sunday, most areas will stay dry until a system moves through next week. Models are having a tough time with this system, but this one could produce much better rain if it is slow to move through.

WET SEASON LIKELY STARTING ON TIME IN BRAZIL DUE TO STRONG FRONT NEXT WEEK

A front brought some areas of showers into central Brazil this week after producing heavy rain farther south. It did produce some flooding across southern states, otherwise conditions are favorable for planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. Another front is forecast to move through next week and may kick off the annual start to the wet season in central Brazil, essentially on time this year. That should get producers planting soybeans at a relatively normal pace.

INCREASE IN RAINFALL FOR ARGENTINA, BUT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE

Fronts have frequently moved across Argentina, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting. A system moving through Sunday into early next week may produce more widespread moderate rain that the country needs, but would be followed by another burst of colder air, making corn planting rather slow. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

EVEN WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WESTERN EUROPE REMAINS DRY

Eastern Europe has seen some isolated rainfall this week, but not enough to significantly improve soil moisture. Meanwhile, it continues to be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and around Hungary as well. The forecast does depict a good system moving through western areas early-to-mid next week, but coverage may not be enough for improvement across all areas. Meanwhile, eastern areas are forecast to be drier again.

BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN AFTER SYSTEM LEAVES FRIDAY

A system spinning around the Black Sea region this week has produced some heavy rain in central and eastern Ukraine, but more limited showers in western Russia. The system will be leaving on Friday with overall drier conditions into next week. However, another system spinning in the Black Sea could get some showers into southern areas early next week. The coverage is expected to be poor, though. While soil moisture has likely increased nicely in Ukraine, it is poor in many parts of western Russia, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN

Some showers may hit western Australia through the weekend, but eastern areas look to remain dry until maybe the middle of next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola in the east, while conditions are only slightly better in the west.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER STARTING UP ACROSS CHINA

It had been largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. Fronts are becoming a bit more common going into early October though. Rain may not be extremely heavy, but would result in better coverage of moderate to perhaps spotty heavy amounts. That may disrupt harvest, but would be beneficial for winter wheat and canola planting in central China.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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