DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...108 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW SUN...22 AT AUSTIN, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...ROCKFORD, IL 2.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America, with a trough in the middle of the U.S. and another over California. The Central U.S. trough will be slow to move eastward this week, largely sticking around the East Coast this weekend and into next week. Part of the Southwest trough will move northeast for midweek while another trough moves into the West late this week. That trough should move east through Canada this weekend and early next week, with another trough following behind it that may sweep through more of the country.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are having a tough time with the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through Canada over the weekend with a front pushing into the Northern Plains with showers. A system should form along that front and is forecast to push through the country with widespread showers and thunderstorms next week. Temperatures are forecast to rise next week, but models are having a difficult time with the forecast for next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system slowly moved through the region over the weekend, which brought some areas of heavier rain from Montana into South Dakota. More showers will move into the region midweek with a small system moving through, and more are expected this weekend. All the rain chances will be helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the region over the weekend. While some areas in the southeast didn't receive a whole lot of rain, many areas in the north and west did. That is favorable for any immature crops, but moistening soils up for winter wheat planting and establishment, which has been in significantly building drought for months in many places. Areas of showers will continue this week, but will be spottier. However, some western areas could see some significant coverage midweek.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A lingering front across the north was a focal point for areas of heavy rain over the weekend, causing areas of flooding from southeastern Minnesota and eastern Iowa into southern Ohio. Showers continue into Tuesday as the front pushes south and eliminates the extreme heat that southern areas have seen for quite a while in September. Some showers may get into western areas later this week and maybe this weekend. The heavy rain is unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with some of the drought across the north and southwest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region over the last week, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily, even though some showers will move through early this week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule and many areas remain wet, leading to quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions through much of this week should be more favorable. That could be somewhat short-lived with another system moving through with potential for widespread rain on Friday and Saturday.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Heavy rain moved back into southern Brazil over the weekend. While it may have produced some flooding, soil moisture is favorable for rapid planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. More rain will move through early this week with a front, which may push some showers into central Brazil later this week as well. Any rainfall there will be favorable ahead of the primary planting season, which begins with the start of the wet season rainfall next week. Any fronts coming up from the south will only enhance the planting pace.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some rain went through southern areas over the weekend, but it still has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting. More cold air will rush in early this week, with another shot forecast for early next week as well. As long as temperatures stay down and rain remains sparse, corn planting will be off to a slow start this year.

Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but were fairly spotty across the north and around Italy. Eastern areas will see some rainfall this week, but should still be spotty. Meanwhile, it will be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and still around Hungary as well.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture continues to be low, but not critical in much of the Black Sea region. However, a system moving into the region will sit and spin for several days this week, which could help many areas to see increasing soil moisture. The rain could may the ongoing corn harvest a bit more difficult, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though a few showers went through Western Australia, most of the country's wheat belt was dry this weekend. Some showers may hit the west throughout the week, with the better chances on Friday and Saturday. But eastern areas look to remain dry for the next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China through most of the week, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry. Fronts may become a bit more active late this week into early October.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday. Isolated showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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