Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More areas of heavy rain moving through the Corn Belt and a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A front has continued to be active in the Midwest for most of the week, producing areas of heavy rain and some flooding. Another system moving through this weekend into early next week will bring several pulses of scattered showers and thunderstorms, again producing areas of heavy rain, especially across Minnesota and Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday. While the increase in soil moisture is nice for some that do winter crops, it is too late to help this year's corn and soybean crop. Instead, the heavy rain could make harvest difficult and introduce problems with molds and disease as they await harvest.

AREAS OF SHOWERS DOTTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have increased soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, but drought remains a problem for much of the region. However, periods of rain should continue into next week, especially in the southwestern Plains, more favorable there. Showers elsewhere will need to be dodged for early harvest activity.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND

A system continues to push through South Dakota on Friday with widespread rain. Additional showers will follow it through the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain and potential for flooding in parts of the Northern Plains. That should help with the drought, but could disrupt harvest. Drier conditions are forecast for much of next week, which should promote drainage and fieldwork.

DRIER IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BUT PLANTING WELL BEHIND NORMAL PACE

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule in the Canadian Prairies and many areas remain wet, leading to quality issues. However, drier and somewhat warmer conditions are forecast this weekend and much of next week, which could be a bit more favorable.

HOTTER AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS IN DELTA CONTINUE TO GROW DROUGHT

Hot and dry conditions this week have continued the trend toward building drought in the Delta. Even a front moving through early next week is unlikely to bring much rain. Though showers farther north may help with keeping water levels up on the Mississippi River, and the dryness promotes harvest, drought continues to be an issue this fall.

MORE RAIN IN SOUTH-CENTRAL BRAZIL LARGELY FAVORABLE FOR SOYBEAN PLANTING

A front will arrive in southern Brazil this weekend, with heavy rain possible into next week. We could see the front pushing north into central Brazil with some advanced showers as well. The start of the wet season should come at the end of the month and this front may be a catalyst toward that process. Soybean planting has started and will accelerate in October. As long as rain comes with decent coverage, progress should be quick this year. We will have to watch for some flooding potential across the south, however.

CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE IN ARGENTINA

Recent cold and dry conditions have been unfavorable for developing wheat and corn planting in Argentina, which should both accelerate going through the rest of the month. Systems continue to push through the country, but with limited rainfall that is starting to be a bit concerning.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE, BUT DRIER IN SPAIN

Showers have been somewhat frequent this week across Europe, and more showers are forecast through early next week, especially in the east. That should help with soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. Western areas, and especially Spain, have been and continue to be drier, a bit unfavorable.

SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE BLACK SEA REGION NEXT WEEK

Soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment in the Black Sea region. A system is forecast to move into the region early next week and sit there for several days, which may bring more widespread precipitation that would be favorable. It may make the corn harvest a bit more difficult, however.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING IN RATHER DRY PATTERN WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE WEST

It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia. A system may move through Western Australia Friday-Saturday, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth. But additional rainfall through the end of the month may be hard to come by.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA CONTINUE TO FIND FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR MATURING CORN AND SOYBEANS

It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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