Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the Upper Midwest, hot temperatures in the southern Corn Belt, limited rain in Argentina, and heavier showers in the Black Sea next week are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISKS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST

Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through the rest of this week as a front stalls across the region. Another system is forecast to move along that front this weekend into early next week with more widespread, heavy rain. The rain will not be helpful for many areas that are looking for drier conditions to get some harvest and other fieldwork done. Rain could cause some areas of flooding and perhaps some quality issues but may also help with some of the drought conditions across the north. Southern areas will be hotter as they stay south of the front and see drought conditions increasing if the system doesn't move through with adequate rain this weekend.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD SEE HARVEST SLOW DOWN NEXT WEEK

Late this week into the weekend, scattered showers will be likely from West Texas to Nebraska. The stormy pattern is both favorable and unfavorable. While the rain could improve drought and increase moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment, it could slow down corn harvest and cause more quality concerns in Kansas and Texas. Temperatures will remain above average for much of Oklahoma and Texas through next week, dipping closer to average for the Central Plains. Showers could continue to target the Central and Southern Plains next week.

FLOODING RISK IN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY

Isolated, light rain showers returned to the Northern Plains on Wednesday with heavy rain across the Dakotas on Friday. The heavy rain is too late to significantly improve maturing corn and soybeans but should help with the ongoing drought. Periodic showers will continue into next week and temperatures will fluctuate between above and below average as cold fronts sweep through in between short stints of high pressure.

LIMITED SHOWERS NEXT WEEK FOR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Largely hot and dry conditions are expected through the rest of this week, though showers may increase early next week as a cold front may finally make it that far south. Overall, drought is expected to grow through next week as rain amounts will be light, unfavorable for any immature cotton or soybeans, but favoring harvest. Rain farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep water levels from getting too low on the Mississippi River, but will be something to watch as rain stays north of the Ohio Valley this week. Towards the end of the month, the Gulf will need to be monitored more closely for tropical systems.

WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

With harvest far behind schedule, rain will be unfavorable for those trying to catch up, and may cause further damage or quality problems in the region. Later this week into the upcoming weekend, swaths of light showers could continue to drift through the southern Prairies. Above-average temperatures will gradually build across the region late this week into early next week, reducing quality concerns.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL ARRIVES FRIDAY

A short period of drier conditions return to southern Brazil through Thursday before another front will arrive this weekend with heavy rain possible. Some central areas could pick up a few showers, but the wet season will likely not arrive for a few more weeks. Outside of some flooding risks, the rain is favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting in the south while central areas await the lifting of restrictions and the start of the wet season at the end of the month.

FORECAST RAINFALL REMAINS LIGHT FOR ARGENTINA THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Recent cold air that moved in produced some areas of frosts and freezes across the south, keeping growth slow for winter wheat. Soils are still too cold for much corn planting to occur as well, which usually picks up toward the end of the month. Dry weather this week won't help as many areas are becoming too dry. More rain is needed, especially across the south, which may not arrive until Sunday. Showers may be hit or miss through the end of the month.

UKRAINE AND THE CAUCASUS COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK

Soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment. There are some opportunities coming up late this week and through next week, but there is some uncertainty on where the heaviest rain could develop as a low pressure system could spin in the area next Tuesday-Thursday.

RAINS FAVOR SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA

It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia. A system may move through Western Australia Friday-Saturday, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth. Through the end of the month, most of the rain showers could end up favoring southwest Australia with spotty, light showers in the southeast.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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