Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., drought growth across the southern U.S., dryness in Australia, and good planting weather in Brazil but not Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE FRONTS AND SYSTEMS BRINGING SHOWERS TO MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A strong cold front continues to push through the Midwest on Thursday with areas of scattered showers and milder air. Pockets of heavy rain have developed with this front and have caused flooding in some areas. Another rise in temperatures will occur ahead of the next front moving through this weekend. Another system is forecast to move through early next week, and one more should follow for late next week or weekend. These fronts and systems should increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields as the crop matures faster than normal in many areas. Soggier conditions could be a little troublesome for early harvest and may impact quality in some areas if the rain is too heavy.

DROUGHT HAS BEEN GROWING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RAIN EASING DROUGHT IN CENTRAL PLAINS

Showers continue to develop along a front that is dropping through the Central and Southern Plains, helping to moisten soils a little while eliminating the extreme heat for a couple of days. Drought growth across the Southern Plains will need more than what has fallen and is forecast, though. To make it worse, temperatures will jump right back up again for the weekend as it continues to be extremely hot, especially across the South. Another front will move in this weekend and early next week with scattered showers, with the heavier rain more likely in northern areas. It will be difficult to plant winter wheat with the continued hot and largely dry conditions for the time being, even with the showers moving through. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

MORE RAIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

While some showers may go through over the next several days, many areas of the Northern Plains will stay dry. However, another system will move through on Sunday and Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest activities.

RECENT AND FORECAST HEAVY RAIN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IMPACTING HARVEST AND QUALITY

Recent heavy rain came at a poor time for grain quality and harvest in the Canadian Prairies. Multiple more systems are forecast to move through the region through next week, bringing additional precipitation to cause problems. Colder air will be in place into next week as well, limiting the movement of water through soils and causing slower progress on the remaining harvest.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN DELTA LEADING TO DROUGHT GROWTH

It continues to be hot in the Delta with some isolated showers closer to the Gulf. A front will slip down into the region on Friday that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend, but the current conditions support increasing drought. With much of the crop reaching toward maturity, the rainfall will not be helpful, but will be needed to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport.

SPRING PLANTING IN BRAZIL STARTING WITH LARGELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

A front has been producing scattered showers in southern and central Brazil this week. Another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers even longer. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early soybean planting. Some areas in the central are awaiting the lifting of soybean planting restrictions, but are getting some decent rainfall that should prime soils for when the restrictions are lifted. The true start to the wet season may be about three weeks away, but the early rain is certainly helpful for producers.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START CORN PLANTING

A front will move through Argentina on Friday with limited showers and another round of cold air. More frosts will be possible, especially south. While that may not have much of an impact on winter wheat that is still vegetative, it is keeping soil temperatures too cold for much corn planting. And despite several fronts moving through this past winter and spring, rainfall amounts have been largely below normal. More rain is needed for wheat growth and corn planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING, BUT SPAIN STAYING DRY

Scattered showers have been moving through Europe this week, but rainfall amounts have been relatively low in most places. Still, recent showers have helped to ease drought from the summer, making for better winter wheat planting and establishment conditions across the North. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. A few more systems will move through this weekend and next week, spreading showers across the continent. Spain may continue to see drier weather though, which may impact winter wheat there.

ONLY LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Although fronts have been frequently moving through the Black Sea region, showers have been less widespread with overall below-normal amounts in many areas for the last couple of months. That largely continues through next week with a couple of systems moving through with spotty showers. Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat planting and establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING IN RATHER DRY PATTERN

A couple of fronts could bring some showers to parts of Australia through next week, but the country is in a rather dry pattern overall. Rain is needed as more wheat and canola get into reproductive stages, but very little is in the forecast.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA ARE DRIER AS CORN AND SOYBEANS MATURE

It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which are starting to get a bit too dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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