DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...112 AT OCOTILLO WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...21 AT 20 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FRENCHGLEN, OR AND 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...FLINT, MI 0.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough moving over the top of it in the Canadian Prairies and another developing off the West Coast. The ridge will be stuck in the same spot throughout the week but have a tendency to shift west into the Plains this weekend and maybe farther west next week. The troughs will keep moving over the top of the ridge, keeping the north very active for the first half of September.

The U.S. and European models disagree about a system moving through northern areas for next Monday, and the potential for additional systems next week. I will use a blend but favor the European, which is much busier with the pattern compared to the GFS.

A system is likely to move through Canada over the weekend, pushing a front down into the northern U.S. If another system can develop along that front, there could be some heavy rain and severe weather for northern areas into early next week. There may be another system doing something similar later in the week. Temperatures north of the front may still be a bit on the warm side, but southern areas should stay quite hot for the first half of September.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A pair of systems moved through over the weekend, bringing through scattered showers and some severe weather reports. The pattern should be somewhat busy for this week, but that could mean most of the precipitation actually goes north into Canada or falls across the south and west. This busy weather pattern should extend into next week, which may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought. Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could impact the continued spring wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It got hot over the weekend with more widespread 100-degree temperatures. Meanwhile, a front dropped into Nebraska and produced some showers. That northern front may be a constant feature this week while it stays hot and dry to the south. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, especially south, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved into the region over the weekend and brought some showers. It also dropped a front across the region that could be active for most of the week. Another front could do that this weekend into early next week. South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas further into maturity. Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It got hot over the weekend and stayed mostly dry, further pushing soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stressing out any of the crop that is not yet mature. Some isolated showers may develop near the Gulf, but most of the region will be hot and dry throughout the week, reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A pair of systems moved in over the weekend and brought scattered showers. Some heavy rain and severe weather were noted, especially in Saskatchewan into far western Manitoba. The system continues eastward on Monday with more rain. The region will be the target of a couple more systems this week and weekend, both producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms. That could have an impact on both the harvest and grain quality.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and will be stalled out there through Tuesday before pushing northward into central Brazil where some areas of showers may develop well ahead of the primary wet season, which is about a month away. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting and for reproductive wheat across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front pushed out of the country and into southern Brazil over the weekend, but didn't bring many showers. Much of the country has been rather dry over the last few months and need rain in the short term for winter wheat, but in the longer term for corn and soybean planting, but that is many weeks ahead.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continued to move across Europe over the weekend and a few more waves will move across northern areas this week. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but way too late to be beneficial for this year's crop. However, with winter crop planting starting this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial. The pattern may stay active next week as well, though those prospects are a bit uncertain.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through the week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was largely dry over the weekend. Some southern areas may be scraped by showers this week, but the drier pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola become reproductive over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be a bit drier this week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north.

Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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