Under the Agridome

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This is going to be economically painful. Last week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called off the trade talks with the United States and asked our negotiators to come back to Ottawa. Immediately there was a U.S.-imposed 50% tariff on about $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. While many of us thought there might be a deal coming at the end of the day, it fell short. Living with the United States and especially with this American administration continues to be very difficult.

Carney said all the right things the next day when he addressed the nation. In fact, he is probably the most popular man in Canada. After such a fracture with the U.S. during the last 18 months, there was only so much that we could take. In many ways, you felt a collected sigh across the nation, but on the other hand there is a steely determination to live through this pain and get to the other side.

Carney told the nation that Canada wanted a deal, but not a deal at any price or on any deadline. He said that negotiations had actually made substantial progress, but late changes to the U.S. proposal were unfair and uneconomical, and it was felt that we could not rely on the American administration to fulfill any agreement. Under those circumstances, he pulled the plug and the 50% tariffs came to fruition. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

A couple days later, the Canadian government announced $27.3 billion of retaliatory tariffs which will come into effect on Sept. 8. (https://www.dtnpf.com/…)

The U.S. responded by saying that any retaliatory tariffs will be met by similar measures. Carney described it as being attacked and that now we are in a trade war.

I don't feel particularly good about any of this because I think it will be painful and very rough going into the future. I have no way of knowing how long it will last.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America. It just so happened I went swimming in that lake last week on my vacation. According to Carney, the name Lake Ontario comes from the Wendat word Ontari'io, which, appropriately, means "the lake is beautiful, the lake is big". The name is more than 400 years old, predating both the Confederation of Canada and the Declaration of Independence of the United States of America.

The water was pristine. Who knew it would be the subject of a Presidential Executive Order changing its name the week after.

One of the cheapest ways for Canadian journalists to gain traction is to criticize Americans. In 2026, I believe one of the cheapest ways to conduct journalism is to pile on criticism of President Trump. That's easy to do because everybody is doing it. I recognize that he is the most powerful man in the world and in many ways the Americans are simply shifting their global trade strategy and Canada is caught up in it. Remember, nostalgia is not a strategy. I grew up on a farm in southwestern Ontario; until I was 30 years old, it was without a free trade agreement with the United States. Now we must be prepared to continue on like we did before.

The problem is, of course, that we've had so much integration within our respective economies. If you have read this column during the last 39 years, you will know how close I feel to my American friends in Detroit. In many ways, southwestern Ontario is joined at the hip with southeast Michigan. Our automotive plants hum together but regrettably that is changing. The retaliatory tariffs that Canada is putting on are extensive and targeted. Agriculture is not immune from that as it looks like combine parts will be much more expensive if we have breakdowns this fall. They are part of the comprehensible list of Canadian-tariffed items.

Aside from this, we had a little bit of good news on the grain front this week. We had the highest December corn close in more than three years, currently at $5.33. We also had highs in the November 2026 soybean contract. On top of that, wheat prices are going crazy with the Chicago contract having a limit up day last Wednesday. With the tough trade news, it came as a welcome respite.

Yes, the pain will be real, but we will have to find a way ahead. Canadians and Americans still have a great affinity for each other. The challenge ahead for Canadian farmers will be to manage the risks we can control and continue to take advantage of opportunities. From Windsor to Nunavut, Vancouver Island to Cape Spear, we will find a way.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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