Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A very active weather pattern next week for the northern tier of the country that may last deep into September, scattered showers in the Canadian Prairies, and dryness problems in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ACTIVE STORM TRACK, HEAT COMING FOR MIDWEST

Though we haven't seen much precipitation in the Midwest this week, the weather pattern will become quite active starting this weekend as several systems will develop and move across the region through a good chunk of September. That will need to be watched to see if additional flooding and severe weather move through again. At the same time, heat will be building across the south and some warmer days are ahead going into the new month. That could stress the immature crop, but for the portion nearing maturity, the heat will move that along rather quickly if the rain doesn't move in with it.

AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS, SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT AND DRY AGAIN

Heat will increase again this weekend with a lot of 100-degree days coming up again for Texas and Oklahoma, and could expand into nearby areas as well. More fronts are forecast this weekend and next week as well, but are likely to stall and produce showers across the Central Plains compared to the Southern Plains, which will trend drier yet again. Areas like Nebraska could see beneficial conditions, even if temperatures are a bit on the warm side.

DAILY SHOWERS STARTING BACK UP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY HELP WITH DROUGHT

A system moving through the Northern Plains on Friday through the weekend in a couple of pieces will be the start of what looks to be near-daily showers and thunderstorms into early September. Some areas have been very dry for quite a long time, so these chances for rain need to pay off or yield potential will continue to decrease. But we will have to watch out for severe weather and a risk of flooding if the rain becomes too consistent. The rain could impact the ongoing wheat harvest as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES DODGING SHOWERS AS HARVEST PICKS UP

A system will move through the Canadian Prairies on Friday with another pulse through the weekend with more scattered showers. And the pattern may feature a couple more systems next week as well. Most of the region would prefer it to be warmer and drier, which would help the remaining immature crop into maturity and allow for better conditions for harvest. While temperatures should be warmer overall, the rain will be somewhat of a hindrance.

DELTA SAW SOME RAIN THIS WEEK, BUT HOT AND DRY AGAIN NEXT WEEK

Showers have been more widespread across the Delta this week, helping to ease building drought conditions in some areas. But the region is going quieter again. Temperatures will be rising next week as a ridge settles in. The pattern should also be drier, which will return the region toward building drought. For immature crops, the recent rain is helpful, but the coming heat and dryness is unfavorable. For the portion of the crop nearing maturity, the conditions will help to push that along. But cotton still needs some time in some areas and should see conditions worsening again.

BUSY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EUROPE IS TOO LATE FOR THIS YEAR

Scattered showers continue to move through Europe into a portion of next week, including some areas of heavy rain. That is much too late for this season's crops, as it was too hot and dry for too long to provide any real benefit to corn, spring wheat, or other small grains. And instead, it could disrupt the harvest and lower quality in some areas. However, it should start to prime soils for winter crop planting, which will start to occur over the next few weeks.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through next week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA GETTING DRIER AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS THIS WEEK

Some showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week, bringing through some rather widespread moderate rainfall. Another front has brought showers into western areas over the past couple of days, but it will not reach the east. The pattern is looking to return to a drier one heading into September, which is unfavorable as wheat and canola become reproductive.

CHINA WATCHING FOR TYPHOONS TO UPSET FAVORABLE SEASON

Scattered showers continue to fall across the primary corn and soybean areas in China, maintaining good soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. The tropics are becoming more active, and Typhoon Saudel is moving into central China just north of Taiwan early Friday. This storm will miss the primary corn and soybean acres, sparing these areas yet again from heavy rainfall. But tropical systems will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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