Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt, but with lingering dryness issues across the north and south and wetness problems in Illinois and Indiana, decent finishing weather in the Canadian Prairies, and dryness problems in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

FLOODED AREAS SAW MORE HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS CONTINUE

Drier conditions in the northern Midwest are juxtaposed with very wet conditions from Iowa to Ohio. That was exacerbated on Wednesday as a front brought some heavy rain to parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that had seen flooding last week. It was more beneficial in the south, though. Another system will move through Thursday through Saturday with more showers, and we are likely to see another system move through early to mid next week. The additional rain in some of these wet areas is not favorable, but could be more beneficial for some of the drier areas in both the north and south. Temperatures will stay mild through next week and may tend to go below normal on a few days.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE

Scattered showers have been favoring Nebraska and Kansas this week, but have been patchy. Meanwhile, it continues to be extremely hot in the Southern Plains. A couple of fronts will attempt to drift south through the region this week and weekend, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are still more likely to see anything significant. Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. The variability results in more showers for next week as well, but will be hard to get down south to Oklahoma or Texas. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS STILL HIT-OR-MISS

Periods of isolated showers have been moving through the Northern Plains lately, but have missed some key areas. Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler. There are still many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops. That is especially true if temperatures rise above normal.

LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Disturbances and fronts continue to bring through occasional showers across the Canadian Prairies through next week, but with a low probability of heavy rain. That should help areas that are farther along to mature, while areas that are still immature get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures have been increasing this week and may stay warm through next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing. Harvest conditions so far are quite favorable.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

It has been too hot and dry in the Delta lately, leading to flash drought conditions. A front will move through over the next couple of days and more showers will be possible this weekend, but models are not very excited about producing much rain. The heat has been unfortunate as well and even though temperatures should be falling with the fronts moving through, it will still stay largely above normal into next week, creating more stress for filling soybeans and cotton.

BREAK IN HEAT WAVE TOO LATE FOR WESTERN EUROPE

The extreme heat is over in Europe except in the Southeast. Scattered showers are increasing across most of the continent as the pattern gets much more active. But it is too late for most areas as it has been much too hot and dry this summer, especially around France. The recent rain this week and what falls in the weeks ahead will help to prime soils for winter wheat and grain planting, however.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region this week, but rain has been targeting western and far northern areas. Eastern areas of Ukraine and southwestern Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures well above normal this week.

DRYNESS STILL AN ISSUE IN AUSTRALIA DESPITE SOME RAIN

Some disruptions to a largely drier pattern have occurred over the last couple of months in Australia, but they have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. Models are grabbing onto some better amounts for some eastern areas early next week, though. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

FAIR CONDITIONS FOR CHINA

The primary corn and soybean areas in China have been able to dodge flooding rains and have had largely favorable conditions over the summer. Periods of showers will continue to develop through next week, continuing the favorable conditions for both crops as they fill.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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