Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt, but with lingering dryness issues across the north and south, patches of rain in the Canadian Prairies, and an eventual turn to the Southern Hemisphere are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST COVERING MORE GROUND, INCLUDING FLOODED AREAS

More rounds of heavy rain over the weekend hit the same areas in the Midwest as they did last week, from Iowa through Ohio. Some areas of Illinois and Indiana have seen massive flood problems, which may have a large impact on production. Far southern areas, like southern Missouri and Illinois have been largely hot and dry for the past week, which is also likely to limit production. Meanwhile across the north, precipitation has been light or missing and soil moisture continues to fall. So outside of some lucky areas that have seen good rainfall without flooding or severe weather, conditions are poorer. The pattern remains active this week, though systems should be passing through with scattered showers instead of lingering with heavy rain for too many areas. But additional rain in central Illinois and Indiana is not favorable. This could be more favorable across the far north and south, however.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THIS WEEK

Scattered showers moved through the Central Plains over the weekend while the Southern Plains stayed hot and dry. A couple of fronts will be drifting south through the region this week, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are more likely to see anything significant. Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. Heat will likely build in this weekend and be tough to shake next week, even if the pattern can stay as active as the forecast suggests. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

DRYNESS PROBLEMS IN THE DAKOTAS CONTINUE

Isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains this weekend, but many areas stayed dry. Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler. There will still be many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers passed through much of the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, with some favorably heavy rain in Manitoba. Several disturbances and fronts will move through with scattered showers this week, but a low probability of heavy rain. That should help areas that are farther along to mature while areas that are still immature to get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures will generally be increasing this week and stay warm next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

It stayed hot and largely dry in the Delta over the weekend. A couple of fronts will push down through the region this week, which may bring some scattered showers and limit the overall heat, at least by the end of the week. Still, temperatures should remain above normal, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

BREAK IN HEAT WAVE TOO LATE FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Extreme heat left Europe over the weekend as scattered showers moved through. The showers were too light to have any significant impact on drought in western countries, but were a little more favorable for portions of the east that could use some rain as well. That continues on Monday. Additional rounds of showers will move through with cooler weather this week. Southeastern areas will remain extremely hot, however. The rain comes too late to provide much of a benefit after an incredibly hot and dry summer across France and adjacent areas.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It was dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend with increasing temperatures. A couple of systems will move through this week, but with rain targeting western areas. Eastern areas of Ukraine and western Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures becoming more stressful this week.

THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH, AUSTRALIA STILL IN DRIER PATTERN

It was dry in Australia over the weekend, a pattern that has been largely in place for the last couple of months. Some disruptions to the drier pattern have occurred, they just have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. That continues this week as a couple of fronts and systems move through, but with limited precipitation. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

FAIR CONDITIONS FOR CHINA

Extremely heavy rain fell in central China last week due to a stalling tropical system, but only hit the outskirts of the primary corn and soybean growing areas on the North China Plain. Instead, some dryness over the last week has been a little disappointing. However, there will be many chances for rain this week as corn and soybeans fill in largely good conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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