DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...116 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...30 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CHARLESTON, WV 3.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There remains a trough in Hudson Bay and a ridge in the South. Both features will do a sort of tug-of-war across the middle of the country this week, resulting in a very active pattern. Another trough is forming in the West. The Hudson Bay trough will leave briefly this weekend but return next week. The western trough will do something similar. This keeps the weather pattern fairly active through at least all of next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are struggling with how thunderstorm complexes will develop. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front may push through the Southeast with some scattered showers early next week, but another front and system will move into the Corn Belt for Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing periods of showers through the end of the week. The details on this front are a bit uncertain. Despite some of the uncertainty, temperatures should be largely mild across the north but hot across the south.

A few warm days between systems across the north will be possible as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Many chances for clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week, but models are likely doing a poor job at capturing the actual rain potential. Regardless, the rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could be scattered and miss some key areas and will need to be watched. The best chance for widespread rain occurs with a system passing through on Thursday and Friday.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will remain hot for most areas this week, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas with some milder temperatures. The heat will aid in thunderstorm development, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through on Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture where they hit, primarily across the north, while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This overall pattern may continue through next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Severe storms and heavy rain moved through on Tuesday, which may be labeled as a derecho across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana where wind gusts of over 80 mph were recorded in several locations. The setup continues to favor clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region almost continuously through the weekend. Another front will move in toward the middle of next week and may return to the active pattern similar to this week. These chances for rain will not hit all locations, and spots across Missouri and southern Illinois are likely to remain hotter and drier through next week, which would cause stress. Temperatures will be more mild across the north, but could see some warmth before next week's front settles in as well. Severe weather will continue to be watched as wind or hail damage at this stage of development would be catastrophic.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers may be possible for the rest of the week and next week, but it will be very hot and mostly dry. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into southern Alberta on Tuesday, an area that needs to see some rain. Showers will be possible there and across southern Saskatchewan for the next few days, which would be very beneficial. Areas of showers will go through the rest of the region as well. Additional showers are likely to return next week. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. Some improvements to crop conditions are likely as we finish out the primary growing season this month.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Several fronts waffling about southern Brazil will continue to produce rainfall this week and next, overall favorable for vegetative winter wheat. Wheat should be developing into its reproductive stages over the next few weeks, largely in good condition. The rain is helping to moisten soils ahead of the soybean planting season which starts next month. El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be cold across the country, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. The pattern remains active across the country, which will lead to reinforcing cold shots for this week and next, keeping growth slow. Despite this, chances for rain are limited in the primary wheat areas. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions are possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, a pattern that continues this week. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. A front will bring in some showers to much of the continent over the weekend, but the heat will not be reduced until another front goes through early-mid next week. That could also bring through some beneficial showers to many areas. It is already much too late for much of the corn in France and the surrounding areas after the extreme heat from this summer, but some areas in lesser stress could see some improvements if the forecast pans out.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A front moving through on Wednesday will bring in some cooler air, but showers have been and continue to be very limited. Temperatures will rise next week and create more stress as rainfall will be largely absent until maybe late next week. The slow progression toward drier conditions to end the summer could have some impact on corn and sunflower production in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Despite some rain moving through last week and weekend, Australia continues to be in an overall dry trend thanks to the developing El Nino. A couple of disturbances could still bring through some showers next week, but the overall pattern continues to be drier. With winter wheat and canola becoming reproductive over the next few weeks, the dryness is concerning if it continues to persist into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin are sitting in central China for the rest of the week, and will be bringing heavy rain to some corn and soybean areas on the North China Plain, leading to flood damage. So far, the heaviest rains have been a touch too far south to cause much damage, but that could increase through the end of the week. If that rain ends up being too heavy, there could be disruption to an otherwise favorable pattern this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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