DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Hudson Bay and a ridge in the South. Both features will do a sort of tug-of-war across the middle of the country this week, resulting in a very active pattern. A trough will form in the West on Wednesday and Thursday and be reinforced next week, aiding in the active pattern.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A storm system will leave the Corn Belt on Sunday with another one or two moving through next week, the details of which are a bit uncertain. Either way, this should support an active pattern across much of the Corn Belt into next week. Temperatures will be largely mild across the north but hot across the south. While the heat will aid thunderstorm development at times, it could create some heat stress on the southern end of the Corn Belt and for those in the Southeast if showers do not develop. A few warm days between systems across the north will be possible as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...122 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...31 AT STANLEY, ID AND 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...GRAND RAPIDS, MI 2.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in Hudson Bay and a ridge in the South. Both features will do a sort of tug-of-war across the middle of the country this week, resulting in a very active pattern. A trough will form in the West on Wednesday and Thursday and be reinforced next week, aiding in the active pattern.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A storm system will leave the Corn Belt on Sunday with another one or two moving through next week, the details of which are a bit uncertain. Either way, this should support an active pattern across much of the Corn Belt into next week. Temperatures will be largely mild across the north but hot across the south. While the heat will aid thunderstorm development at times, it could create some heat stress on the southern end of the Corn Belt and for those in the Southeast if showers do not develop. A few warm days between systems across the north will be possible as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Many chances for clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week, but models are likely doing a poor job at capturing the actual rain potential. Regardless, the rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could be scattered and miss some key areas and will need to be watched. The best chance for widespread rain occurs with a system passing through on Thursday and Friday.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will remain hot for most areas this week, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas. That will aid in thunderstorm development at various points throughout the week, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through on Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture across the north while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This pattern may continue through next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend and over the east on Monday, bringing some needed rainfall to some areas while others remained unfortunately drier. The setup for this week favors daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend and quite likely into next week as well. Temperatures will be mild in general, but a stalled front in the south could mean higher temperatures across areas like Missouri and the Ohio Valley. If these areas pick up some good moisture, they could deal with the heat. But if they remain dry, then stress could continue to mount for filling crops.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers will be possible each day this week while temperatures will be hot. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through Alberta over the weekend and Monday, which was beneficial, with some spotty showers elsewhere. Areas of showers will go through the region each day this week, which may favor some of the drier areas in the south. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. If showers are too isolated, then there could continue to be areas of stress and falling conditions. But if the showers are more widespread, there could be some significant improvements.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Isolated showers went through southern Brazil over the weekend, an area that has seen favorable rainfall over the last month or so. Several fronts waffling about the area will continue to produce rainfall this week, overall favorable for vegetative winter wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It was cold and dry over the weekend, with some areas of frost that continue this week. With winter wheat being vegetative, no damage is expected. The pattern remains active across the country, which will lead to reinforcing cold shots for this week and next, keeping growth slow. Despite this, chances for rain are limited in the primary wheat areas. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions are possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, a pattern that continues this week as well. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. More days of above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall will continue the process.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Some isolated showers went through over the weekend and Monday, but most areas remained dry. A front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the forecast is only calling for limited rainfall. Though temperatures will fall behind the cold front, they should rise again next week.

The lack of rain is causing conditions to worsen for filling corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain fell over southeastern areas over the weekend, reversing the recent drier trend in the region and improving conditions for winter wheat and canola. A couple of fronts and disturbances will move through this week, but opportunities for additional rainfall are lower. So despite the recent improvements, the overall trend is still toward lower precipitation amounts as crops become reproductive this month and next.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin are sitting in central China for the rest of the week, bringing heavy rain to some corn and soybean areas on the North China Plain, leading to flood damage. If those happen to be in some of the primary corn and soybean areas, there could be massive disruption to an otherwise favorable pattern this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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