Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) – Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected across the southern Corn Belt while scattered showers quickly advance through Argentina today. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

STORM TRACK FAVORS THE MIDWEST INTO MID-AUGUST

Some slight relief to the recent heat will continue through the end of the week behind a slow-moving cold front which will move through the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week's storm track could go directly over the Corn Belt with some swaths of heavier rain possible at times. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling soybeans and reproductive corn.

SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAIN HOT WITH SHOWERS FAVORING THE CENTRAL PLAINS

The eastern half of Nebraska and Kansas saw rain earlier this week with the tail end of a cold front drifting through the Central Plains. Most of the heaviest precipitation will miss the Southern Plains and by next week, a ridge will lend to a drier and warmer pattern for the region. However, storms could still edge into the Central Plains at times. Rain may come just in time to benefit reproductive corn in northern areas, but it may be too late in the south, where early harvest will start at the end of the month.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures start rebounding into the 90s on Thursday after a brief break in the heat earlier this week. Showers and storms will be spotty and light throughout the rest of the week, but some swaths of heavier rain could develop late this weekend into next week across the eastern Dakotas. Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Late this week, isolated showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. A similar pattern may set up for next week with only isolated showers across the region. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

RAIN RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST CANADIAN PRAIRIES NEXT WEEK

Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. Widespread showers may not return until Sunday across the southwest as most storm systems continue to favor northern and eastern areas late this week. Cooler temperatures will linger in the southern Prairies through early next week, but more heat would help the rate of growth. As showers become more hit or miss, soil moisture is dropping for some areas.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Showers have mainly favored northeast Argentina earlier this week, but a larger system could provide widespread showers to central areas Thursday. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure will build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible. There is also a slight risk for temperatures dropping near freezing next week, mainly across Buenos Aires.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN EUROPE AND BLACK SEA

Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe through the end of the week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from this week's rain, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

RAIN RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino while most showers earlier this week have favored western areas. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. Widespread, heavier showers will develop across the southeast this weekend but precipitation could become much more hit or miss next week.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN

Showers may start to become more isolated across central and northeastern China late this week into next week. This isn't a major concern as recent rainfall has led to largely favorable conditions for corn and soybeans. Typhoon Dolphin will make landfall in southeast China this weekend and lead to heavy rain south of Shanghai. Remnants of Dolphin could linger into central China through much of next week, potentially causing some areas of flooding in the North China Plain.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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