DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is across the north-central U.S. with a ridge building into the West Coast while another ridge is in the Northeast. The trough in the North-Central U.S. will stall out across the region through the early weekend as a strong ridge near the North Pole keeps it locked in near the Hudson Bay.

Meanwhile, a ridge will begin to takeover across the West and nudge into the Great Plains by Friday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been better with the cooler air this summer. Temperatures will stay cooler across the North-Central U.S. through the end of the week with heat building back into the West. This weekend into next week, the western ridge will lead to warmer conditions returning for the Plains. A few storm complexes may still traverse across the Northern Midwest into the middle of the month with troughing continuing across southern Canada.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...121 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW TUE...22 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...RICHMOND, VA 1.59 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is across the north-central U.S. with a ridge building into the West Coast while another ridge is in the Northeast. The trough in the North-Central U.S. will stall out across the region through the early weekend as a strong ridge near the North Pole keeps it locked in near the Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a ridge will begin to takeover across the West and nudge into the Great Plains by Friday.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been better with the cooler air this summer. Temperatures will stay cooler across the North-Central U.S. through the end of the week with heat building back into the West. This weekend into next week, the western ridge will lead to warmer conditions returning for the Plains. A few storm complexes may still traverse across the Northern Midwest into the middle of the month with troughing continuing across southern Canada.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cooler air has arrived behind a cold front, but it won't stick around for long as temperatures start rebounding into the 90s by Thursday. Showers and storms will be spotty and light throughout the rest of the week, but some swaths of heavier rain could develop late this weekend into next week. Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front will continue to target the Central Plains, with the heaviest rain favoring southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The Southern Plains will see spotty showers and storms later this week. By next week, a ridge will lend to a drier and warmer pattern, especially across the Southern Plains. However, storms could still edge into the Central Plains at times. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some slight relief to the recent heat will continue through the end of the week behind a slow-moving cold front which will eventually advance east toward the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry.

Next week could feature warmer and drier conditions for southern areas, but storm systems could still tag the north. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling soybeans and corn.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Late this week, isolated showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. A similar pattern may set up for next week with only isolated showers across the region. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. Widespread showers may not return until Sunday across the southwest as most storm systems continue to favor northern and eastern areas late this week. Cooler temperatures will linger in the southern Prairies through early next week, but more heat would help the rate of growth. As showers become more hit or miss, soil moisture is dropping for some areas.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Showers will continue to favor southern Brazil going into next week, beneficial for vegetative wheat. Central Brazil will be drier, typical for this time of the year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have mainly favored northeast Argentina early this week, but a larger system could provide widespread showers to central areas Thursday. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure will build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible. There is also a slight risk for temperatures dropping near freezing next week, mainly across Buenos Aires.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe through the end of the week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from this week's rain, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Showers will pick up across western areas on Friday as a cold front works through with some of the heaviest rain favoring Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania. By Sunday and into early next week, heavier showers will target southwest Russia and the Caucasus. For areas that get missed with showers over the coming days, heat could cause increased stress. Temperatures may not return closer to average until early next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino while most showers early this week have favored western areas. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. Widespread, heavier showers will develop across the southeast this weekend but precipitation could become much more hit or miss next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China this week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. Typhoon Dolphin will drift west throughout the week, eventually making landfall near central China late this weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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