Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) – A slow-moving cold front continues across the Corn Belt this week with the High Plains missing out on rain while drier and cooler conditions return to Argentina late this week into next week. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Tuesday.

COLD FRONT SLOWLY MARCHES THROUGH THE MIDWEST

After some widespread rainfall throughout the region this weekend, a break in the heat is expected this week. Monday through Wednesday, another cold front will sweep through western areas, advancing east towards the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week could feature warmer and drier conditions for most of the region, but storm systems could still tag northern areas. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling corn and soybeans.

POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN TARGET NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

Showers targeted eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas over the weekend. Early this week, a slow-moving front will mainly target the Central Plains again, but models are showing some differences in rain amounts. The Southern Plains will see spotty showers and storms later this week. By next week, a ridge will lend to a drier and warmer pattern. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

BRIEF COOLDOWN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

On Monday, a strong cold front moved through and brought a burst of cooler air that will last for a few days. Showers and storms remain spotty throughout the rest of the week before more heat returns this weekend. Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

LATE-WEEK RAIN WILL BE HIT OR MISS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Early this week, conditions will largely be dry with temperatures hovering close to average. Late this week, spotty showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

SOUTHWEST CANADIAN PRAIRIES MISSING RAIN THIS WEEK

A storm system moved through on Sunday, which will bring cooler temperatures to the region this week. Showers will be spotty, with the heaviest rain favoring northern and eastern areas. Though it has been hotter and drier over the last couple of weeks, that has helped to increase the rate of growth for much of the region. Most areas have been able to deal with this warmth because of good soil moisture, but that is dropping. Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up.

DRIER AND COOLER IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Spotty showers will favor northeast Argentina early this week before a larger system could provide widespread showers to central and northern areas Thursday. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure could build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible. There is also a slight risk for temperatures dropping near freezing next week, mainly across Buenos Aires.

HEAT TARGETS CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe this week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from the rain this week, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

LARGE SYSTEM PROVIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west early this week may be a break in the pattern this week, but it could largely miss eastern areas. The next system to target the east will not move into the area until this weekend.

TYPHOON DOLPHIN COULD HIT CENTRAL CHINA BY THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China this week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. Typhoon Dolphin will drift west throughout the week, eventually making landfall near central China late this weekend.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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