Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Rain and cooler temperatures build across the Midwest this week with drier conditions in the High Plains. Periodic showers drift through Argentina before a dry spell could return next week. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Monday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

After some widespread rainfall throughout the region this weekend, a break in the heat is expected this week. Monday through Wednesday, another cold front will sweep through western areas, advancing east towards the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week could feature warmer and drier conditions for most of the region, but storm systems could still tag northern areas. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling corn and soybeans.

RAIN FAVORS THE CENTRAL PLAINS

Showers targeted eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas over the weekend. Early this week, a slow-moving front will mainly target the Central Plains again, but models are showing some differences in rain amounts. The Southern Plains will see spotty showers and storms later this week. By next week, a ridge will lend to a drier and warmer pattern. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Late last week, a system provided widespread rain to the Dakotas, offering a break in the high temperatures and limited precipitation they have seen most of this summer. On Monday, a strong cold front will move through and bring a burst of cooler air throughout the week. Showers and storms will be spotty along the front and throughout the rest of the week. Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

LATE-WEEK RAIN WILL BE HIT OR MISS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Early this week, conditions will largely be dry with temperatures hovering close to average. Late this week, spotty showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

SHOWERS TAG ARGENTINA THIS WEEK BEFORE DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK

Spotty showers will favor northeast Argentina early this week before a larger system could provide widespread showers to central and northern areas Thursday and Friday. However, models have some differences on where the heaviest rain will set up. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure could build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible.

HEAT TARGETS CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe this week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from the rain this week, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

DRY CONDITIONS BECOMING A CONCERN ACROSS AUSTRALIA

Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west early this week may be a break in the pattern this week, but it could largely miss eastern areas. The next system to target the east will not move into the area until this weekend.

TYPHOON DOLPHIN COULD HIT CENTRAL CHINA BY THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China this week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. Typhoon Dolphin will drift west throughout the week, eventually making landfall near central China this weekend.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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