DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...124 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...32 AT PETER SINKS, UT, AND 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PINE, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...DAYTON, OH 1.95 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the East with a ridge in the Southwest that extends into the Mississippi Valley. Farther west, a trough is beginning to swing into the Northern Plains from the Canadian Prairies. The trough entering the North-Central U.S. will stall out across the region most of this week as a strong ridge near the North Pole keeps it locked in near the Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a ridge will begin to build in the West and Southeast again.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been better with the cooler air this summer. Temperatures will stay cooler across the North-Central U.S. this week with heat building back into the West. This weekend into next week, a western ridge will try to work into the Plains and Mississippi Valley, leading to drier and warmer conditions returning. A few storm complexes may still traverse across the Northern Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Late last week, a system provided widespread rain to the Dakotas, offering a break in the high temperatures and limited precipitation they have seen most of this summer. On Monday, a strong cold front will move through and bring a burst of cooler air throughout the week. Showers and storms will be spotty along the front and throughout the rest of the week. Precipitation deficits still remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers targeted eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas over the weekend. Early this week, a slow-moving front will mainly target the Central Plains again, but models are showing some differences in rain amounts. The Southern Plains will see spotty showers and storms later this week. By next week, a ridge will lend to a drier and warmer pattern. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): After some widespread rainfall throughout the region this weekend, a break in the heat is expected this week. Monday through Wednesday, another cold front will sweep through western areas, advancing east towards the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week could feature warmer and drier conditions for most of the region, but storm systems could still tag northern areas. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Early this week, conditions will largely be dry with temperatures hovering close to average. Late this week, spotty showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A storm system moved through on Sunday, which will bring cooler temperatures to the region this week. Showers will be spotty, with the heaviest rain favoring northern and eastern areas. Though it has been hotter and drier over the last couple of weeks, that has helped to increase the rate of growth for much of the region. Most areas have been able to deal with this warmth because of good soil moisture, but that is dropping. Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Waves of moderate to heavy rain showers will sweep across southern Brazil this week, beneficial for vegetative wheat. Central Brazil will be drier, typical for this time of the year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Spotty showers will favor northeast Argentina early this week before a larger system could provide widespread showers to central and northern areas Thursday and Friday. However, models have some differences on where the heaviest rain will set up. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure could build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe this week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from the rain this week, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

BLACK SEA (CORN): After last week's widespread showers, this week's rainfall will be much more spotty and heat will build in. Drier areas in the south could see increased stress. The next chance for widespread rain may not arrive until this weekend, with some of the heaviest rain targeting northern areas, like Ukraine. However, models are still mixed on the extent of the weekend showers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west early this week may be a break in the pattern this week, but it could largely miss eastern areas. The next system to target the east will not move into the area until this weekend.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China this week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. Typhoon Dolphin will drift west throughout the week, eventually making landfall near central China this weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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