DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with troughs in the East and North Pacific. A disturbance is moving over the ridge and will deepen in the Midwest and then the Southeast, pushing the ridge a bit farther back to the West. The northern end of the ridge will get pinched off and move east across Canada this weekend and early next week, closely followed by the Pacific trough, which will be a slow-mover through Canada next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Canadian trough will cause the ridge to spread through more of the U.S.

and kick out the Southeastern trough later next week. The strongest part of the ridge will still be in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Some showers and milder air will continue in the Southeast early next week.

Warmer air in the West. A cold front will move through northern areas next week in a couple of pushes. Scattered showers are forecast across the Corn Belt near the front. Temperatures south of the front will increase throughout the week while it will be cooler near and north of it.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...119 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...34 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...ALBANY, NY 6.35 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with troughs in the East and North Pacific. A disturbance is moving over the ridge and will deepen in the Midwest and then the Southeast, pushing the ridge a bit farther back to the West. The northern end of the ridge will get pinched off and move east across Canada this weekend and early next week, closely followed by the Pacific trough, which will be a slow-mover through Canada next week. The trough will cause the ridge to spread through more of the U.S. and kick out the Southeastern trough later next week. The strongest part of the ridge will still be in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Some showers and milder air will continue in the Southeast early next week.

Warmer air in the West. A cold front will move through northern areas next week in a couple of pushes. Scattered showers are forecast across the Corn Belt near the front. Temperatures south of the front will increase throughout the week while it will be cooler near and north of it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal for this summer, causing stress to all crops.

But that looks to be changing. A system will bring through widespread rain to the Dakotas on Thursday with some cooler air. Though temperatures will rise this weekend, a strong cold front will push through on Monday, bringing through a burst of cool air. Some showers will be possible along the front, but models do not have widespread heavy rain. If the rain is widespread on Thursday, it will be highly beneficial. But if it remains more isolated, like the potential showers for next week, there will be more stress for reproductive to filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front in the Central Plains has produced some scattered showers over the last couple of days, which continues on Thursday with a system moving through. South of this front remains hot. Cooler air will move through behind the system for Friday into the weekend, but will be brief with rising temperatures next week. A front should stall out in the Central Plains again next week, which may bring some milder temperatures and showers there while southern areas get hot and dry again. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front in Missouri produced some limited showers on Wednesday. A system will move through the region through the weekend and stands a great chance at producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as bring in some milder air to the whole region. In addition, another cold front will move into the region next week in a couple of bursts, which will be a factor in producing more areas of showers and bring some mild temperatures. With some follow-up rain, some areas will see improving conditions, but areas to the south of the front are likely to return to hotter and drier conditions that could be worse. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and need more rain and milder temperatures to stabilize during the most important time for filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has stalled in the region and continues to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Any rainfall will be welcomed in the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans. Temperatures are forecast to increase next week and may cause more stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though it has been hotter and drier over the last couple of weeks, that should have little impact on crop conditions as it allowed for enhanced growth and fill while most areas have had good soil moisture. However, areas in the southwest may be too hot and dry, where stress is most likely to show up. The region remains on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers and above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but may not bring much precipitation with it.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers have been frequent over southern Brazil lately and continue to be fairly widespread this week and next, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite many systems and fronts moving through lately, precipitation has been hard to come by. That continues through next week with several more chances for precipitation moving through. Despite all the chances, showers are again expected to be limited, hitting only some lucky areas with needed rainfall. This could become a problem in another month or so if precipitation amounts don't pick up and wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Yet another heatwave is settling across Europe this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for eastern areas that had better conditions. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week, when a front moving through should bring temperatures down and may come with some helpful rain. It is possible that western areas still see above-normal temperatures and limited rain, however.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A system moving through the Black Sea region this week is exiting on Thursday after bringing widespread showers. Showers were not as heavy across the south, which was somewhat disappointing for some corn and sunflower areas. As this system leaves, heat will build into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the drier south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers may scrape across the south through the weekend, drier conditions have become more common with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west may be a break in the pattern next week, bringing through some scattered showers, but the drier pattern remains.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China into next week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Spotty showers southwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal northwest and near to above normal southeast Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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