Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat in the Plains, an increase in the precipitation forecast for the Corn Belt, and another heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MILDER TEMPERATURES, LATE WEEK RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system brought fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the Midwest on Monday, but was mostly dry in the west. The front will be stalling in Missouri and will have potential to produce some showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. A system will move through the region Thursday through Saturday and stands the best chance at producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as bringing in some milder air to the west where it remains warm the next couple of days. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and need more rain to stabilize during the most important time for filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

HOT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is stalling in the Central Plains and will bring some areas of showers and slightly milder temperatures for the next few days. But if it doesn't rain, it will remain hot with worsening conditions for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. Conditions continue to be hot and dry across the Southern Plains. Precipitation is forecast to be limited next week.

STILL HOT, BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal in the Northern Plains for this summer, causing stress to all crops. It will remain hot most of the week, but chances for precipitation will still occur each day, especially with a system moving through on Thursday. If rain isn't widespread, concerns will continue to build. Some milder air will move in behind a front early next week that could bring stresses down a bit.

SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING STRESS ON EDGE OF HEAT

Above-normal temperatures were found across the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but were hotter in the southwest. Showers fell over northern Alberta, but were limited to absent elsewhere. Though the conditions are not tremendously horrible for filling wheat and canola, it could be very stressful now in the southwest. The region will stay on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers and above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but may or may not bring much precipitation with it.

FRONT MOVING INTO DELTA AND STALLING

A front will slip into the Delta on Wednesday and have a tendency to stall out in the region. That could produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Any rainfall will be welcomed in the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans.

HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS EUROPE AGAIN

A system brought showers across parts of Europe on Sunday, continuing across the east on Monday. The system missed large areas in the west that have been under incredible heat stress this summer. Temperatures are building there yet again and will spread across the continent over the next couple of days, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for better areas in the east. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION, THEN HEAT

Scattered showers went through far eastern Ukraine and western Russia over the weekend, favorable for reproductive to filling corn. Another system will move through Tuesday through Thursday with more widespread showers and overall good conditions for the region. However, afterward, heat is forecast to fill into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the south.

SLOWLY DRYING OUT IN AUSTRALIA

Though some showers may scrape across southern Australia this week, drier conditions are becoming more common now with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA, HEAT NOT CONCERNING RIGHT NOW

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. That largely continues this week, but temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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