DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the East. The pattern will be stable for the first half of the week. A disturbance will move over the ridge late this week and deepen more in the Midwest, pushing the ridge a bit farther back to the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will attempt to push back east again this weekend into early next week. At the same time, a trough will move through Canada for next week, which will cause the ridge to spread through more of the U.S. and kick out the eastern trough. The strongest part of the ridge will still be in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the overall picture but have differences in where and how much precipitation to produce. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system and cold front will be completing a push through the South and Southeast this weekend. Some cooler air will develop there, but warmer air in the west will again spread through the Plains and Midwest. Another system will move through Canada this weekend and early next week, dragging a front across the northern U.S. that could produce areas of showers and thunderstorms and bring some milder temperatures to the north, too.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...121 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...32 AT 19 MILES NORTHEASTH OF KIRKLAND, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...ASHEVILLE, NC 1.30 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the East. The pattern will be stable for the first half of the week. A disturbance will move over the ridge late this week and deepen more in the Midwest, pushing the ridge a bit farther back to the West. However, the ridge will attempt to push back east again this weekend into early next week. At the same time, a trough will move through Canada for next week, which will cause the ridge to spread through more of the U.S. and kick out the eastern trough. The strongest part of the ridge will still be in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the overall picture but have differences in where and how much precipitation to produce. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system and cold front will be completing a push through the South and Southeast this weekend. Some cooler air will develop there, but warmer air in the west will again spread through the Plains and Midwest. Another system will move through Canada this weekend and early next week, dragging a front across the northern U.S. that could produce areas of showers and thunderstorms and bring some milder temperatures to the north, too.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It became extremely hot in the region over the weekend as temperatures climbed up to or over 100 degrees in many areas. Some showers went through South Dakota, but most areas stayed dry, as conditions continue to generally worsen as the summer wears on. It will remain hot most of the week, but chances for precipitation will still occur each day. Some milder air will move in behind a front early next week. But the lack of appreciable precipitation continues to bring concerns.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): It became hot and dry over the weekend with most of the region up near or over 100 degrees. A front will bring some areas of showers and slightly milder temperatures this week as it generally stalls in the region. But if it doesn't rain, it will remain hot with worsening conditions for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): It became hot in the west this weekend while it was milder in the east. Some areas of showers and thunderstorms developed on the edge of the heat throughout the weekend. A system will drag a front through the region on Monday into Tuesday, which will produce widespread chances for rainfall. However, not all areas will be hit with needed rain. Temperatures will be milder in the east, but still warmer in the west throughout the week.

Above-normal temperatures may also spread to the east at times through next week, but only for a short period of time. Disturbances should be bringing scattered showers through the region throughout the week, but the ability to produce widespread heavy precipitation like the region needs is very low.

Instead, there will be some definite winners and some unfortunate losers in this scenario. Several weeks of frequently above-normal temperatures with infrequent rainfall are producing areas of increasing dryness and drought as well as poor conditions for filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Though a front remained stalled in the region over the weekend, very limited rain fell as temperatures rose. Another front will slip into the region on Wednesday and have a tendency to stall out in the region.

That could produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any rainfall will be welcomed in most of the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Above-normal temperatures were found across the region over the weekend, but were hotter in the southwest. Showers fell over northern Alberta, but were limited to absent elsewhere. Though the conditions are not tremendously horrible for filling wheat and canola, it could be very stressful now in the southwest. The region will stay on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers with the above-normal temperatures.

A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down, but may or may not bring much precipitation with it.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers have been frequent over southern Brazil lately and continue to be fairly widespread this week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite many systems and fronts moving through lately, precipitation has been hard to come by. That continues this week with several more chances for precipitation moving through. Despite all the chances, showers are again expected to be limited, hitting only some lucky areas with needed rainfall. This could become a problem in another month or so if precipitation amounts don't pick up and wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system brought showers across parts of Europe on Sunday, continuing across the east on Monday. The system missed large areas in the west that have been under incredible heat stress this summer. Yet another heatwave will spread across the continent this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for better areas in the east.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Scattered showers went through far eastern Ukraine and western Russia over the weekend, favorable for reproductive to filling corn.

Another system will move through Tuesday through Thursday with more widespread showers and overall good conditions for the region. However, afterward, heat is forecast to fill into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was dry over the weekend. Though some showers may scrape across the south this week, drier conditions are becoming more common now with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. That largely continues this week, but temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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