Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front bringing a brief shot of cooler air but limited showers, overall good growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and another upcoming heat wave in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDWEST, PRECIPITATION TOUGH TO COME BY

A strong cold front is bringing much more comfortable air into the Midwest to relieve stresses for plants and livestock. The front produced some showers but missed key areas in Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. A few days of cool air will sit in the region before temperatures rise again this weekend. Another front moving through early next week could bring through another round of milder air along with some showers. Overall though, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation, unfavorable for pollinating corn and pod-setting soybeans.

STALLED FRONT IN CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING SHOWERS NEXT FEW DAYS

A cold front is stalling in the Central and Southern Plains, being a focal point for a couple of periods of showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Some of those may produce heavy rain. Areas south of the front will stay hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will rise across the Central Plains this weekend, causing more stresses as above-normal temperatures continue for much of next week. We will be watching to see if a cold front can come down mid-late next week with more showers and some milder air, or if that front will bypass the region.

MILD NOW, BUT TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WEEKEND

Mild temperatures continue in the Dakotas over the next day or two while Montana will heat up. The heat will spread eastward this weekend. Some showers may move through this week, but most areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some showers. But overall, below-normal rainfall is expected while above-normal temperatures continue into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing to reproductive crops.

WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Though temperatures fell in the Canadian Prairies with a cold front moving through on Monday, they will rise again from west to east over the next couple of days. Several systems will likely move through the region through next week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and wet season thus far.

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA PRODUCING LITTLE THREAT OR BENEFIT FOR THE DELTA

Though a front is dropping into the Delta on Wednesday, it is only going to produce limited showers. Temperatures will still be excessive in the south. Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to move into Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday, but will be weak and is not forecast to bring much precipitation. With conditions staying largely hotter and especially drier, more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans should be developing.

ANOTHER HEAT WAVE FORECAST FOR EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Eastern areas of Europe continue to see scattered showers and mild air for the next couple of days. A system should spread showers across the continent this weekend. Yet another heat wave will spread across Europe next week, creating more damage to western areas that continue to be drier. Eastern areas will start to see stresses developing again after some rather favorable weather over the last several days.

SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEK, WEEKEND

A system continues to move through Ukraine with scattered showers, slowly moving through western Russia Thursday through the weekend in a couple of pulses with scattered showers. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing to reproductive corn and winter wheat harvest with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast developing next week could start to produce more stresses for corn in the region.

SLOWLY DRYING OUT IN AUSTRALIA

Some spotty showers may be possible in parts of Australia this week, but drier weather is starting to become more common for the country as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA

Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue this week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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