DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. These two features will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Models currently like the idea of the ridge spreading into the Plains this weekend, but getting pushed back to the West later next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European, which has now come much more into alignment with the GFS.

A cold front will move through the country this weekend into early next week, reinforcing some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will fill in across the Plains. Another system will move through mid-late next week with some precipitation, but another supply of milder air to the East.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...113 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW MON...26 AT 17 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAKER, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...CHATTANOOGA, TN 1.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. These two features will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month. Models currently like the idea of the ridge spreading into the Plains this weekend, but getting pushed back to the West later next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European, which has now come much more into alignment with the GFS.

A cold front will move through the country this weekend into early next week, reinforcing some milder air across the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will fill in across the Plains. Another system will move through mid-late next week with some precipitation, but another supply of milder air to the East.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong cold front has moved through the region, bringing in much more mild temperatures for the Dakotas over the next few days while Montana will heat up. Some showers may move through this week, but most areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some showers. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while heat will spread through this weekend into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing reproductive crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front is pushing down into the region on Tuesday with milder air across the north. The front will stall out today, being a focal point for a couple of periods of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday through Friday. Some of those may be severe with heavy rain. Southern areas are likely to stay hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will likely rise across the Central Plains this weekend, causing more stresses.

We will be watching to see if a cold front can come down mid-late next week with more showers and some milder air, or if that front will bypass the region.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong cold front is pushing through the region on Tuesday, bringing through much more comfortable air to relieve stresses for plants and livestock. The front produced some showers over Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on Monday, but was generally limited. The front should bring a significant threat of severe weather to the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening before clearing the area. A few days of cool air will sit in the region before temperatures rise again this weekend. Another front moving through this weekend or early next week could bring through another round of milder air along with some showers. Overall though, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation, unfavorable for pollinating corn and pod-setting soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heat will continue to be in the area the before a front drops south into the region on Wednesday with some limited showers and a relief from the excessive heat. However, with the front stalling in the area, temperatures will still be excessive in the south. Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to move into Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday, but will be weak and is not forecast to bring much precipitation. With conditions getting largely hotter and drier, more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans should be developing.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though temperatures fell with a cold front moving through on Monday, they will rise again from west to east over the next couple of days. Several systems will likely move through the region this weekend and next week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and wet season thus far.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. A front moved into the south with scattered showers that continue through much of the week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Several impulses of a system will move through the country over the next few days, but precipitation will be limited. The country could use more rainfall for vegetative winter wheat, but especially in about a month when the temperatures should be rebounding toward spring.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through eastern Europe over the weekend, bringing milder temperatures and scattered showers. However, areas in the west will get hot again this week while showers continue to be very limited. That continues to be poor for reproductive corn in France, which has seen crop conditions plummet over the last several weeks. Occasional showers and milder temperatures are forecast across the east, favorable for developing to reproductive crops there.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into Ukraine with scattered showers over the weekend. That system will be slow to move east this week, but should spread some showers into Russia by Thursday, continuing into the weekend. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing to reproductive corn and winter wheat harvest with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast for next week could start to produce more stresses in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through western Australia over the weekend, but most areas of the country stayed dry. Some spotty showers may be possible this week, but drier weather is starting to become more common for the country as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue this week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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