DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. A disturbance moving over the top of the ridge will strengthen the eastern trough this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge and eastern trough pattern will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but have differences in where and when to produce precipitation. The European is also farther east with warmer air next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A system is likely to move through Canada over the weekend, dragging a cold front through the country into early next week and reinforcing some milder air across the eastern U.S. The western ridge should continue to supply warmth to the West and Plains while the Midwest is stuck in between the two regimes.

Additional disturbances moving through next week could bring more isolated showers.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...118 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...29 AT 17 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAKER, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SPRINGFIELD, IL 1.00 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. A disturbance moving over the top of the ridge will strengthen the eastern trough this week. The western ridge and eastern trough pattern will do battle for the middle of the country this week and next, making the forecast a difficult one through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but have differences in where and when to produce precipitation. The European is also farther east with warmer air next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A system is likely to move through Canada over the weekend, dragging a cold front through the country into early next week and reinforcing some milder air across the eastern U.S. The western ridge should continue to supply warmth to the West and Plains while the Midwest is stuck in between the two regimes.

Additional disturbances moving through next week could bring more isolated showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): More heat developed over the weekend, but a cold front moving through on Monday will bring in much more mild temperatures for several days while Montana will heat up. Some showers may move through this week, but most areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some decent rain. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while heat will spread through this weekend into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing to reproductive crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat built up across the region over the weekend and continues to be extremely hot on Monday before a cold front moves into the region with milder air across the north. The front will stall out in the region, being a focal point for a couple of periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of those may be severe with heavy rain.

Southern areas are likely to stay hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will likely rise this weekend, causing more stresses.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Eastern areas saw a system bring scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as some milder temperatures on Friday and Saturday while western areas stayed warmer with mostly dry conditions. It continues to be hot on Monday, but a front moving through into Tuesday will help to bring temperatures down significantly while producing some areas of showers. Eastern areas again look to be favored for anything widespread.

However, the front will get hung up in the southwest where we could see some showers and thunderstorms later this week. Though temperatures are coming down this week, areas that are drier in the west that do not see much precipitation could still have issues, especially for reproductive corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It became fairly dry over the weekend while temperatures rose. Heat will continue to be in the area the next couple of days before a front drops south into the region on Wednesday with some limited showers and a relief from the excessive heat. However, with the front stalling in the area, temperatures will still be excessive in the south. A tropical depression developing off the coast of Florida could bring some showers to southern areas to mitigate some of that heat midweek, but is unlikely to bring a large area of heavy precipitation that would be preferred. With conditions getting hotter and drier, more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans should be developing.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some heat developed over the weekend while showers went mostly through northern areas. A system moving through Sunday into Monday will bring down temperatures slightly, but temperatures will rise again toward the second half of the week. Several systems will likely move through the region this weekend and next week, though, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a favorable combination for most areas that had been too wet and cool for much of the season so far.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. A front moved into the south with scattered showers that continue through much of the week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front moved in over the weekend but produced little precipitation. However, more impulses will be moving through this week, bringing occasional precipitation. More rain would be favorable for the vegetative wheat, but the trend toward some precipitation is favorable.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through eastern Europe over the weekend, bringing milder temperatures and scattered showers. However, areas in the west will get hot again this week while showers continue to be very limited. That continues to be poor for reproductive corn in France, which has seen crop conditions plummet over the last several weeks. Occasional showers and milder temperatures are forecast across the east, favorable for developing to reproductive crops there.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into Ukraine with scattered showers over the weekend. That system will be slow to move east this week, but should spread some showers into Russia by the end of the week, continuing into the weekend. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing to reproductive corn and winter wheat harvest with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast for next week could start to produce more stresses in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through western Australia over the weekend, but most areas of the country stayed dry. Some spotty showers may be possible, but drier weather is starting to become more common for the country as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue this week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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