Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A significant heat wave across the northern U.S. during corn pollination, very little precipitation surrounding it, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

END OF HEAT WAVE FOR MIDWEST GETTING CLOSER

It continues to be very hot and humid across the Midwest for the next couple of days. Models still have significant differences in the temperature forecast for the end of the week, but our forecasts are leaning toward the milder end of the spectrum. Thick and heavy wildfire smoke will be in the area through at least the weekend, which may help to keep temperatures down a couple of degrees. Some isolated showers developing over the next couple of days will help to keep temperatures down as well. A front will come through this weekend with a second front moving through on Sunday and Monday. The second one will bring much cooler air in for next week. Those two fronts plus some additional disturbances could bring through some meaningful rain in some areas, but will miss others. How widespread all that rain becomes will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination, but soybeans could see some stress as well.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR TEXAS, CENTRAL PLAINS GETTING HOTTER

Heavy rain and flooding has occurred in parts of Texas this week, which continues there through Friday or Saturday. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the Central Plains bake in a summer heat wave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture while increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heat wave could reverse that quickly in some areas. However, the front moving in next week may stall in the region. If it does, we could see some enhanced rainfall at times.

HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, END IN SIGHT

The heat wave in the Northern Plains continues for the next few days before a front moves through with relief on Sunday into Monday. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture continues to evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages is occurring. Even with the heat wave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in Montana while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME WARMTH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies is on the edge of a heat wave and some more significant heat will make its way into the west over the next couple of days ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Periods of showers will continue into next week but will be somewhat limited in scope and intensity. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

A front has produced widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Delta over the last several days, but will tend to migrate northward into the Midwest for the rest of the week. The showers have been keeping temperatures down to more seasonable levels, but will be warmer now with them largely gone. A front clearing through early next week will bring more showers and milder temperatures, with conditions remaining overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

RELIEF FOR EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL HOT IN FRANCE

A system moving across western Europe with some showers will then move through the east for Friday and Saturday. This will bring widespread showers through the continent and some cooler air. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas will be milder with more showers, a bit more favorable for crops there.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system moving through Europe will slowly pulse through the Black Sea region this weekend and next week in a few waves, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

STARTING TO SLOWLY GET DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

After some showers earlier this week, conditions should be drier overall across eastern Australia through next week. Across the west, a front is moving in on Thursday and will produce showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, and it may be becoming drier with time going into late July and August. If the drier trends hold beyond that, it would come during a more vulnerable period for both wheat and canola as they get into reproductive stages.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA

Areas of rain continue to move through central China after some heavier rain early this week. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through into next week, but favor areas that are not flooding, and hitting more corn and soybean areas to the north and northeast, being favorable for reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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