DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...121 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...37 AT FOXPARK, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...JACKSONVILLE, FL 1.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A strong ridge remains across the West and Central while a small trough continues underneath it in Texas. A trough continues to spin in eastern Canada.

And a couple of disturbances are found on the edge of the ridge, one in northwest Canada and another off the Pacific Northwest coast. Both of those features will round over the top of the ridge and take out the eastern portion of the ridge this weekend and then early next week, respectively. That will push the ridge back to the west while the eastern trough continues. A ridge-west and trough-east pattern that will make the forecast difficult in the transition zone across the Corn Belt through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models still have significant differences in their temperature forecast. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is on the cooler side and more likely to be accurate.

A cold front will continue to push south through the country early next week.

That will bring some relieving temperatures and some rainfall along with it.

Temperatures may remain above normal in the Southern Plains if the front can't push all the way through that region next week, but if the front does hang up, it could be an area to watch for some significant thunderstorms. Additional disturbances moving southeast through the country could contribute additional areas of isolated showers next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The heatwave continues for the next few days before a front moves through with relief on Sunday into Monday.

Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture continues to evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages is occurring.

Even with the heatwave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in Montana while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and flooding has occurred in parts of Texas this week, which continues there through Friday or Saturday. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the north bake in a summer heatwave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture while increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heatwave could reverse that quickly in some areas. However, the front moving in next week may stall in the region. If it does, we could see some enhanced rainfall at times.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It continues to be very hot and humid across the region for the next couple of days. Models are still have significant differences in the temperature forecast for the end of the week, but our forecasts are leaning toward the milder end of the spectrum. Thick and heavy wildfire smoke will be in the area through at least the weekend, which may help to keep temperatures down a couple of degrees. Some isolated showers developing over the next couple of days will help to keep temperatures down as well. A front will come through this weekend with a second front moving through on Sunday and Monday. The second one will bring much cooler air in for next week. Those two fronts plus some additional disturbances could bring through some meaningful rain in some areas, but will miss others. How widespread all that rain becomes will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination, but soybeans could see some stress as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has produced widespread showers and thunderstorms over the last several days, but will tend to migrate northward into the Midwest for the rest of the week. The showers have been keeping temperatures down to more seasonable levels, but will be warmer now with them largely gone. A front clearing through early next week will bring more showers and milder temperatures, with conditions remaining overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The region is on the edge of a heatwave and some more significant heat will make its way into the west over the next couple of days ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Periods of showers will continue into next week but will be somewhat limited in scope and intensity. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Another front will move in with more southern showers into next week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. A front moving through on Friday and impulses moving through behind it should bring through more widespread precipitation into next week that would be beneficial.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be hot in western Europe. However, a system is moving across the west with some showers, and will then through the east for Friday and Saturday. This will bring widespread showers through the continent and some cooler air. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas will be milder with more showers, a bit more favorable for crops there.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through Europe will slowly pulse through the region this weekend and next week in a few waves, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): After some showers earlier this week, conditions should be drier overall across the east through next week. Across the west, a front is moving in on Thursday and will produce showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, and it may be becoming drier with time going into late July and August. If the drier trends hold beyond that, it would come during a more vulnerable period for both wheat and canola as they get into reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas of rain continue to move through central China after some heavier rain early this week. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through into next week, but favor areas that are not flooding, and hitting more corn and soybean areas to the north and northeast, being favorable for reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near normal south and well above normal north.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers southwest Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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