DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A strong ridge is spread out across the northern U.S. A small trough remains underneath it and a trough is in eastern Canada. That trough will cut off the eastern end of the ridge over the next couple of days and additional disturbances moving over the ridge through early next week will expand the eastern trough and push the ridge back to the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge-west and trough-east pattern that will make the forecast difficult in the transition zone across the Corn Belt through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models still have significant differences in their temperature forecast. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is on the cooler side and more likely to be accurate.

A system will push a cold front through the country Sunday into early next week. That will put an end to the heatwave east of the Rockies and bring some relieving rainfall along with it. Temperatures may remain above normal in the Southern Plains if the front can't push all the way through that region next week. Additional disturbances moving southeast through the country could contribute additional areas of isolated showers next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...115 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...37 AT ANGEL FIRE NM, AND STUB CREEK, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...LAKE CHARLES, LA 2.34 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A strong ridge is spread out across the northern U.S. A small trough remains underneath it and a trough is in eastern Canada. That trough will cut off the eastern end of the ridge over the next couple of days and additional disturbances moving over the ridge through early next week will expand the eastern trough and push the ridge back to the West. A ridge-west and trough-east pattern that will make the forecast difficult in the transition zone across the Corn Belt through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models still have significant differences in their temperature forecast. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is on the cooler side and more likely to be accurate.

A system will push a cold front through the country Sunday into early next week. That will put an end to the heat wave east of the Rockies and bring some relieving rainfall along with it. Temperatures may remain above normal in the Southern Plains if the front can't push all the way through that region next week. Additional disturbances moving southeast through the country could contribute additional areas of isolated showers next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A major heatwave continues the next few days before a front moves through with relief this weekend. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture will evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages looks likely. Even with the heatwave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in Montana while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front across the south will continue showers across Texas through the end of the week. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the north bake in a summer heatwave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture while increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heatwave could reverse that quickly in some areas. However, the front moving in next week may stall in the region. If it does, we could see some enhanced rainfall at times.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It continues to be very hot and increasingly humid across the region for the next few days. Models still have significant differences in the temperature forecast for the end of the week as a front dips south on Wednesday night and Thursday, which would limit the heat across eastern areas and bring some limited showers. Some additional showers may start to develop across the region late this week anyway. A front will come through this weekend which will put an end to the excessive heat with a second front moving through Sunday and Monday bringing much cooler air in for next week. Those two fronts plus some additional disturbances could bring through some meaningful rain in some areas, but miss others. How widespread all that rain becomes will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination, but soybeans could see some stress as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front has produced widespread showers and thunderstorms over the last several days. Those continue on Wednesday, but will tend to migrate northward into the Midwest for the end of the week. The showers have been keeping temperatures down to more seasonable levels this week. With a front clearing through early next week with more showers and milder temperatures, conditions remain overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The region is on the edge of a heatwave. Some more significant heat may make its way into the west later this week ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Another front will move in late this week with more southern showers into next week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. A front moving through on Friday and impulses moving through behind it should bring through more widespread precipitation into next week that would be beneficial.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be hot in western Europe and is trying to expand eastward. However, a system in the Atlantic will move across the west over the next couple of days, and then through the east for Friday and Saturday. This will bring widespread showers through the continent and some cooler air. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Systems are forecast to frequently spin through the region this week and next, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall.

Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): After some showers earlier this week, conditions should be drier overall across the east. Across the west, a front will move in on Thursday and continue with showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, and it may become drier with time going into late July and August. If the drier trends hold beyond that, it would come during a more vulnerable period for both wheat and canola as they get into reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnant low of Typhoon Bavi brought heavy rain through the North China Plain into the northeast earlier this week. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through this week, and the repeated hits could be a little troublesome for flooding on the North China Plain. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across a lot of the corn and soybean areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal south and well above normal north.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal south and above to well above normal north Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal north and near normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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