Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A significant heat wave developing across the northern U.S. during corn pollination, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION

Across the northern Midwest, temperatures will be incredibly warm this week, challenging records in some areas. Lots of 90-degree highs will be found from Minnesota to Michigan in the heat for several days. Models are still trying to get a front to drop south into the region on Wednesday night and Thursday, which would limit the heat across eastern areas and bring some limited showers. Some models keep that front north in Canada and expand the heat to more areas of the region. There is no clear trend, but northern areas will likely suffer anyway. A front will come through this weekend which will put an end to the heat and likely bring some relieving showers into early next week. How widespread that rain is and what follows next week will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL GETTING HOTTER

A stalled front across the Southern Plains will continue showers there through the end of the week. That will help keep temperatures down while areas across the north bake in a summer heat wave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through Sunday into early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture significantly while rapidly increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heat wave could reverse that quickly in some areas.

EXTREME HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A major heat wave will be stuck around the Northern Plains through much of the week before a front moves through with relief this weekend. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture will evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages looks likely. Even with the heat wave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME HEAT FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will be on the edge of a heat wave most of the week. Some more significant heat may make its way into the west later this week ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA, LIMITING HEAT

A front settled into the Delta over the weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Those continue through at least Wednesday and possibly longer, keeping temperatures more seasonable for this week. With a front clearing through early next week with more showers, conditions remain overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

DAMAGING HEAT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE CONTINUES DESPITE SOME RELIEF LATER THIS WEEK

It continues to be hot and dry in western Europe, though some spotty light showers found their way into France. Heat will try to move eastward this week, but models have retreated from the extreme temperatures. A system in the Atlantic may produce some spotty showers across the west over the next couple of days, but will get more widespread rain into the continent Thursday through Saturday as it finally moves east. That will bring temperatures down and will make it cool across eastern Europe. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Systems are forecast to frequently spin through the Black Sea region this week and next, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

STILL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers are scraping through far southeastern Australia on Tuesday, but conditions should be drier overall across the east. Across the west, a front will move in on Thursday and continue showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, but has yet to really accomplish that task. Still, some damage may occur during a more vulnerable period in August through September.

EASTERN CHINA RECOVERING FROM TYPHOON BAVI

The remnant low of Typhoon Bavi brought heavy rain through the North China Plain into the northeast on Monday. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through this week, and the repeated hits could be a little troublesome for flooding on the North China Plain. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across a lot of the corn and soybean areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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