DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...117 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...25 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...TULSA, OK 3.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A strong ridge is building across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. A small trough remains over the Southeast. The ridge will be trying to expand eastward this week and will have some initial success. However, a trough will go over the ridge and into eastern Canada and the Northeast around midweek. This trough will be a factor in reducing the ridge across the Midwest while it remains across the Rockies and Northern Plains for later this week. The ridge is likely to back up into the West this weekend and continue there next week, resulting in a ridge-west and trough-east pattern that will make the forecast difficult in the transition zone across the Corn Belt.

The U.S. and European models still have major differences in how they treat the ridge and trough features this week but are in better agreement for next week. I will use a blend, but still favor the GFS, which is limiting the heat across the Midwest later this week. The European model seems to be much too hot.

A system will move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday into Saturday. Its cold front will then push through much of the country Sunday into early next week. That will put an end to much of the heatwave east of the Rockies and bring some relieving rainfall along with it. Additional disturbances moving southeast through the country could contribute additional areas of isolated showers next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A major heatwave developed over the weekend, sending temperatures way above normal and making for some new high temperature records. The heat will be stuck around through much of the week before a front moves through with relief on Friday and Saturday. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture will evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages looks likely. Even with the heatwave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front drifted south through the region over the weekend and continues with showers and thunderstorms across the south through at least Wednesday and possibly through the end of the week. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the north bake in a summer heatwave. The heat will reduce soil moisture significantly while rapidly increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heatwave could reverse that quickly in some areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front and system pushed through over the weekend with scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain across the south. Across the north, temperatures rose significantly and will be incredibly warm this week, challenging record highs in some areas. Lots of 90-degree highs will be found from Minnesota to Michigan in the heat for several days. Models are still trying to get a front to drop south into the region on Wednesday or Thursday, which would limit the heat across eastern areas and bring some limited showers. Some models keep that front north in Canada and expand the heat to more areas of the region. There is no clear trend, but northern areas will likely suffer anyway. A front will come through this weekend which will put an end to the heat and likely bring some relieving showers as well. How widespread that rain is and what follows next week will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front settled into the region over the weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Those continue through at least Wednesday and possibly longer, keeping temperatures more seasonable for this week. With a front clearing through this weekend and early next week, conditions remain overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): An extensive heatwave started over the weekend as temperatures rose into the 90s across the eastern half of the region. Most of the significant heat will remain south of the border though, as a front moves through on Monday with milder temperatures settling in for the rest of the week. Some limited heat may make its way into the west later this week ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Some showers moved across the south over the weekend, which would should be beneficial for vegetative wheat and should not disrupt the corn harvest. Another front may move in late this week with more southern showers.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. A front moving through later this week and weekend could bring through more widespread precipitation that would be beneficial, but may be followed by more cold weather next week.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): It continued to be hot and dry in western Europe over the weekend, though some spotty showers found their way into France. Heat will try to move eastward this week, but models have retreated from this position, and more summer heat instead of extreme heat is forecast. A system in the Atlantic may produce some spotty showers across the west this week, but will get more widespread rain into the continent Thursday through Saturday as it finally moves east. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain hot in western Europe even through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system spread showers across the region this weekend, though many areas saw only light amounts. Systems are forecast to frequently spin through the region this week and next, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through southeastern areas over the weekend. Some isolated showers may scrape through far southeastern areas this week, but conditions should be drier overall across the east. Across the west, a front will move in midweek and continue showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, but has yet to really accomplish that task. Still, some damage may occur during a more vulnerable period in August through September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Typhoon Bavi hit the Central China coast this weekend, bringing heavy rain to some limited crop areas. The remnant low will move north into the North China Plain for Monday with some heavy rain extending into northeast areas as well. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through this week though, and the repeated hits could be a little troublesome for flooding. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across a lot of the corn and soybean areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near normal south and well above normal north.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above to well above normal north through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday, above normal north and near normal south Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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