Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A significant heat wave developing across the northern U.S. with more limited rainfall going forward, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST

A system continues to slowly move through the Midwest, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend across the south. Heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. Most likely, this front comes through mid-late next week and brings some milder temperatures and scattered showers, but could wait until next weekend. The slower this front is, the more heat stress we will see in the region. The precipitation forecast is calling for limited amounts through next week. That may be a concern as corn continues to move into pollination. Though recent rainfall has produced pretty good soil moisture in most areas, it may not be enough if temperatures remain too much above normal.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING SOUTH

Widespread showers will continue in the Central and Southern Plains as a front slips southward through the region this weekend. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week. Though mild through the weekend, we should see temperatures increasing next week, at least across the north. Though some issues with stress will show up, the recent and forecast rainfall should also help for crop growth.

EXTREME HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Recent rainfall has boosted soil moisture and eased drought in the Northern Plains, but has done so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures will increase significantly this weekend with a major heat wave for several days into early next week. While temperatures should ease a bit next week, above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week or longer while precipitation chances are low. That should cause some stress for crops and forages.

LIMITED SHOWERS AND SOME HEAT FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Though the frequency is certainly lower, systems will continue to move through the Canadian Prairies with some areas of showers through next week. With temperatures rising as well, this is actually preferred after a long run of mild and wet conditions over the last several months. The coming weather pattern should favor growth, helping some wet areas to dry out a bit. We may be on the lookout for some dry spots showing up if this warmer and drier pattern persists for too long, however.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA

A front moving through the Delta this weekend will bring more scattered showers and will tend to continue areas of showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

DAMAGING HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent have seen more systems producing showers and milder air this week. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend and especially next week. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops beyond repair.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Several systems have moved through the Black Sea region this week, but have favored Ukraine with the widespread and heavy rain. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week across western Russia. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The continued showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

A LITTLE DRIER, BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment in Australia so far this season. A system brought a few showers to the west on Thursday, but will bring additional showers to the east this weekend. Another system is forecast for next week. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA WATCHING TYPHOON BAVI THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in northeast China as well as the North China Plain, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Super Typhoon Bavi is set to make landfall in central China on Saturday. Massive amounts of water will flood into central China, which could be an issue for flooding of some crops and will need to be monitored depending on where its remnant low moves through the country. Recent forecasts have this low moving through the North China Plain and maybe the northeast early next week, which could cause some problems if the rain is heavy.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

Copyright 2026 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.