DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...121 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW THU...29 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...PHILADELPHIA, PA 2.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a couple of disturbances moving out of it and a trough in western Canada. The ridge will strengthen significantly this weekend. The Canadian trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada, deepening in eastern Canada and the Northeast by the middle of next week. This creates a ridge-west and trough-east pattern that may continue for a while.

The U.S. and European models are starting to come into better alignment on the pattern and timing for next week. I will use a blend, but still favor the GFS, which has been more consistent and still has milder temperatures earlier next week.

A front will be stuck across the South and Southeast next week where showers will continue through at least midweek. A system moving through Canada should bring a front down into the northern U.S. next week. That may or may not produce much precipitation. Models are inconsistent with this. They also still disagree about the temperature forecast. The preferred models are hot in the West into the Plains with milder temperatures in the East with more showers along the front. Other models are slower with the front through the East and have less precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall has boosted soil moisture and eased drought, but has done so in sporadic fashion.

Temperatures will increase significantly this weekend with a major heatwave for several days into early next week. While temperatures should ease a bit next week, above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through next week or longer while precipitation chances are low. That should cause some stress for crops and forages.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers will continue as a front slips southward through the region this weekend. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week.

Though mild through the weekend, we should see temperatures increasing next week, at least across the north. Though some issues with stress will show up, the recent and forecast rainfall should also help for crop growth.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to slowly move through the region, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. Most likely, this front comes through mid-late next week and brings some milder temperatures and scattered showers, but could wait until next weekend. The slower this front is, the more heat stress we will see in the region. The precipitation forecast is calling for limited amounts through next week. That may be a concern as corn continues to move into pollination. Though recent rainfall has produced pretty good soil moisture in most areas, it may not be enough if temperatures remain too much above normal.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front moving through this weekend will bring more scattered showers and will tend to continue areas of showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though the frequency is certainly lower, systems will continue to move through with some areas of showers through next week. With temperatures rising as well, this is actually preferred after a long run of mild and wet conditions over the last several months. The coming weather pattern should favor growth, helping some wet areas to dry out a bit.

We may be on the lookout for some dry spots showing up if this warmer and drier pattern persists for too long, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Some showers will move across the south through Monday, which would be preferred for vegetative wheat and should not disrupt the corn harvest much.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. Cooler temperatures behind these fronts have also produced frosts at times, but are not a concern for damage. A front moving through later next week could bring through more widespread precipitation.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent have seen more systems producing showers and milder air this week. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend and especially next week. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops beyond repair.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems have moved through this week, but have favored Ukraine with the widespread and heavy rain. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week across western Russia. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The continued showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment so far this season. A system brought a few showers to the west on Thursday, but will bring additional showers to the east this weekend. Another system is forecast for next week. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia.

It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in the northeast as well as the North China Plain, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Super Typhoon Bavi is set to make landfall in central China on Saturday. Massive amounts of water will flood into central China, which could be an issue for flooding of some crops and will need to be monitored depending on where its remnant low moves through the country. Recent forecasts have this low moving through the North China Plain and maybe the northeast early next week, which could cause some problems if the rain is heavy.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday, south Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday, above normal north and near normal south Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal north and near to below normal south Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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