Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a busy weather pattern across the U.S. Corn Belt, significant heat in the north, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

AREAS OF HEAT BUILDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST

A system continues to slowly move through the Midwest, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. The trend has been for the front to not bring as much relief and instead for temperatures to remain above normal next week. With corn getting into pollination, the heat is coming at a critical time for development. What is worse is that precipitation looks sparse next week, which will cause some areas to dry out as well.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THEN GETTING DRIER

More widespread showers continue into the weekend as a front slips southward through the Central and then Southern Plains. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week. Though mild through the weekend, we should see temperatures increasing next week, at least across the north. Though some issues with stress will show up, the recent and forecast rainfall should also help for crop growth.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

One more disturbance moving through the Northern Plains will bring showers and thunderstorms through early Friday. Recent rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures will increase significantly this weekend. While temperatures should ease a bit, above normal temperatures are forecast through next week while precipitation chances are low. That should cause some additional stress for crops and forages.

MORE LIMITED SHOWERS AND SOME HEAT FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Though the frequency is certainly a bit lower, systems will continue to move through the Canadian Prairies with some areas of showers through next week. With temperatures rising as well, this is actually preferred after a long run of mild and wet conditions over the last several months. The coming weather pattern should favor growth, helping some wet areas to dry out a bit. We may be on the lookout for some dry spots showing up, however.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA

A front moving through the Delta this weekend will bring more scattered showers and will tend to continue areas of showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

DAMAGING HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent have seen more systems producing showers and milder air. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend and especially next week. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops beyond repair.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Several systems are moving through the Black Sea region this week, but have favored Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week across western Russia. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

A LITTLE DRIER, BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment in Australia so far this season. A system may get some showers in the west over the next couple of days and some isolated showers will move through the east this weekend. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA WATCHING SUPER TYPHOON BAVI THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in northeast China as well as the North China Plain, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Super Typhoon Bavi is forecast to make landfall near northern Taiwan and then central China on Friday and Saturday. Massive amounts of water will flood into central China, which could be an issue for flooding of some crops and will need to be monitored depending on where its remnant low moves through the country. Recent forecasts have this low moving through the North China Plain early next week, which could cause some trouble.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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