DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a couple of disturbances running through it and a trough in the Southeast. As the disturbances leave, the ridge will strengthen this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada, deepening in eastern Canada and the Northeast by the middle of next week. This creates a ridge-west and trough-east pattern that may continue for a while.

The U.S. and European models continue to have important differences in the placement and strength of the ridge for next week. While the GFS is starting to trend more toward the European, there still are big differences between the models. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is likely doing a better job at seeing the strength of the eastern trough, and in turn the western ridge.

A front will be stuck across the South and Southeast next week where showers will continue. A system moving through Canada could bring a front down into the U.S. next week. That may or may not produce much precipitation. Models are inconsistent with this but are trending toward not bringing the front very far south into the country. They also disagree significantly about the temperature forecast. The preferred models are hot in the West into the Plains with milder temperatures in the East. Though other models suggest more widespread above-normal temperatures. This leads to low confidence.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...118 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA, AND 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW WED...28 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...GREEN BAY, WI 1.58 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a couple of disturbances running through it and a trough in the Southeast. As the disturbances leave, the ridge will strengthen this weekend. A trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada, deepening in eastern Canada and the Northeast by the middle of next week. This creates a ridge-west and trough-east pattern that may continue for a while.

The U.S. and European models continue to have important differences in the placement and strength of the ridge for next week. While the GFS is starting to trend more toward the European, there still are big differences between the models. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is likely doing a better job at seeing the strength of the eastern trough, and in turn the western ridge.

A front will be stuck across the South and Southeast next week where showers will continue. A system moving through Canada could bring a front down into the U.S. next week. That may or may not produce much precipitation. Models are inconsistent with this but are trending toward not bringing the front very far south into the country. They also disagree significantly about the temperature forecast. The preferred models are hot in the West into the Plains with milder temperatures in the East. Though other models suggest more widespread above-normal temperatures. This leads to low confidence.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): One more disturbance moving through will bring showers and thunderstorms through early Friday. Recent rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures will increase significantly this weekend.

While temperatures should ease a bit next week, above normal temperatures are forecast through next week while precipitation chances are low. That should cause some stress for crops and forages.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): More widespread showers are likely starting on Thursday as a front slips southward through the region. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week.

Though mild through the weekend, we should see temperatures increasing next week, at least across the north. Though some issues with stress will show up, the recent and forecast rainfall should also help for crop growth.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to slowly move through the region, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. The trend has been for the front to not bring as much relief and instead for temperatures to remain above normal next week. With corn getting into pollination, the heat is coming at a critical time for development. What is worse is that precipitation looks sparse next week, which will cause some areas to dry out as well.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front moving through this weekend will bring more scattered showers and will tend to continue areas of showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though the frequency is certainly a bit lower, systems will continue to move through with some areas of showers through next week. With some temperatures rising as well, this is actually preferred after a long run of mild and wet conditions over the last several months. The coming weather pattern should favor growth, helping some wet areas to dry out a bit. We may be on the lookout for some dry spots showing up, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Some showers may move across the south for Friday through Monday, which would be preferred for vegetative wheat and should not disrupt the corn harvest.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. Cooler temperatures behind these fronts have also produced frosts at times, but are not a concern for damage. A front moving through later this week is not forecast to bring much rain, but another moving through later next week could.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent have seen more systems producing showers and milder air. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend and especially next week. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops beyond repair.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems are moving through this week, but have favored Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week across western Russia. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment so far this season. A system may get some showers in the west over the next couple of days and some isolated showers will move through the east this weekend. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in the northeast as well as the North China Plain, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Super Typhoon Bavi is forecast to make landfall near northern Taiwan and then central China on Friday and Saturday. Massive amounts of water will flood into central China, which could be an issue for flooding of some crops and will need to be monitored depending on where its remnant low moves through the country. Recent forecasts have this low moving through the North China Plain early next week, which could cause some trouble.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, south Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and near normal south Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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