Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread areas of showers across the U.S., some potential for heat next week, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, HEAT NEXT WEEK?

A system will slowly move through the Midwest this week, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. It is more likely than not that a front does come through, keeping the heat muted. Overall, this is still a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans in most of the region, though chances for heat should be monitored as corn starts to pollinate.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE WEEK

Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms developed in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Some areas of showers will be possible for the next couple of days, but will be more likely starting Thursday as a front slips southward through the region. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue this week. We may see temperatures increasing this weekend into next week for a time. Though some issues with stress will show up, recent rainfall should also help for crop growth.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK, HOT THIS WEEKEND

Several disturbances moving through the Northern Plains will bring periods of showers throughout the week. Recent and forecast rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is also doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures will remain milder this week, but will increase this weekend. The region is likely to be on the edge of heat next week, which may or may not cause stress depending on how hot it remains.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved across the Canadian Prairies over the long weekend, keeping soil moisture high. A couple of systems will move through this week and weekend with some areas of showers. Models have decreased the coverage and intensity of the showers from last week, which would be preferred in most areas after the recent cool and wet weather.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA

Areas of showers and thunderstorms developed in the Delta over the weekend. A system stalling around the region and to the east will continue showers for the next few days. Another front moving through late this week and weekend will bring more and will tend to continue showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

ANOTHER HEATWAVE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent will see more systems producing showers and bringing through some milder air. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Several systems will move through the Black Sea region this week, but favor Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. At least until Friday. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

A LITTLE DRIER, BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment in Australia so far this season. A system will move into the west late this week and some isolated showers will move through the east as well. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in northeast China and are now spreading to the North China Plain as well, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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