Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread areas of showers across the U.S., and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST

A front and a couple of systems moved through the Midwest this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front brought temperatures down several degrees. Some pockets of severe weather and flooding also occurred, which may have negative impacts. Otherwise, the variable weather has helped most areas of the region either maintain or increase soil moisture for developing crops. Some showers may linger early this week, but a system moving through later this week should bring through more widespread showers and thunderstorms again. Overall, this is still a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans in most of the region.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE WEEK

Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms developed in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Some areas of showers will be possible for the front half of the week, but will be more likely during the latter half of the week. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue this week. Though some issues with stress will show up, recent rainfall should also help for crop growth.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Scattered showers produced some severe weather and heavy rain in the Northern Plains over the holiday weekend, but many areas remained dry as well. Several disturbances moving through will bring periods of showers throughout the week. Recent and forecast rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is also doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures will remain milder this week, but may increase this weekend.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved across the Canadian Prairies over the long weekend, keeping soil moisture high. A couple of systems will move through this week and weekend with some areas of showers. Models have decreased the coverage and intensity of the showers from last week, which would be preferred in most areas after the recent cool and wet weather.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA

Areas of showers and thunderstorms developed across the Delta over the weekend. A system stalling around the region and to the east will continue showers for early this week. Another front moving through late this week and weekend will bring more. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

ANOTHER HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Hot and dry conditions moved back into western Europe over the weekend, which continues to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent will see more systems producing showers and bringing through some milder air. The heat will tend to spread eastward late this week and over the weekend. Doing so may get showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought widespread showers to the Black Sea region over the weekend. Several more will move through this week, but favor Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. At least until Friday. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn in western Russia, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

A LITTLE DRIER, BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

It was drier in Australia over the weekend, but recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment so far this season. A system will move into the west late this week and some isolated showers will move through the east as well. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in northeast China and are now spreading to the North China Plain as well, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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