Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end to the heatwave across the eastern half of the U.S., widespread areas of showers through next week, continued showers across the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

EXTREME HEAT ENDS IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, BUT SUMMER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK

A front to the west and across the north is a focal point for producing periods of showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days in the Midwest. That will favor the north with pockets of heavy rain and severe weather, the areas that have been somewhat drier in June. Temperatures remain extremely hot and humid and that will spark more isolated showers across the rest of the region the next couple of days. A weak system slowly moving through this weekend will be the end of the extreme heat, but it will still feel like summer next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will still move through at times into next week as well. Overall, this is a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A boundary continues to be stuck in the Central and Southern Plains. Temperatures continue to be hot east of it while it will be a little cooler and drier to the west of it. It is also a point where showers have been and continue to develop over the next few days, but areas of substantial precipitation should be low in coverage. That will cause some stresses for some areas that continue to be drier, even after last week's rainfall. A system moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down several degrees, though it will still be very summer-like next week. The potential for precipitation next week is a bit uncertain with key model differences. Shower potential will be very hit-or-miss, leading to some areas of good weather and some areas of poor weather for developing corn and soybeans. Those with wheat yet to harvest still have some good opportunities to do so.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Disturbances will continue to move through the Northern Plains through next week, continuing a somewhat active pattern through the region for the first half of July. Rainfall should help to ease drought, but may come with some periods of severe weather. Mild temperatures will have a tendency to rise next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent precipitation has been heavy across the Canadian Prairies over the last several weeks, causing some areas of flooding, especially in Manitoba. Disturbances will keep some showers going through next week, but at a reduced rate. The rainfall is overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though those wet areas could use a drier stretch.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Moisture coming up from the Gulf started to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Delta on Wednesday, and will get a boost from a system moving through this weekend into early next week. As long as some of this rain falls over the entire region as forecast, the conditions will not be too bad. However, if we do not see the forecast rainfall, then there could be some stress developing.

HOT AND DRY ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Extreme heat has eased in Europe over the last couple of days, and eastern areas have seen some beneficial rainfall this week. However, the heat will return to western areas over the next few days and continue through next week. This will particularly hurt corn and other summer crops in France, but should have impacts to adjacent areas as well. Meanwhile, eastern areas of the continent should have more luck with systems passing through, producing widespread rainfall, and more favorable temperatures through most of next week. But the heat may tend to spread eastward later next week.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region through next week, with models targeting Ukraine with the most precipitation. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn in western Russia, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. Drier weather this week has promoted drydown and harvest for wheat across the south.

A LITTLE DRIER, BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system is exiting southeast Australia after producing another round of decent showers. Models have become a little drier for next week, but soil moisture is still fairly good for a lot of areas. This year's El Nino has yet to bring the drier influence it typically does and winter wheat and canola are in largely good condition during establishment. However, El Nino's influence usually increases over the next couple of months, which may have a more damaging impact yet this season when crops go through their reproductive stages.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeast China. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain have been promoting wheat and canola harvest, but showers will be increasing in July as the harvest winds down and summer crops continue to develop. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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