Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A heatwave across the eastern half of the U.S. but recent and forecast rainfall that should limit the heat's impact, extensive rain across the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

EXTREME HEAT IN THE MIDWEST, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN

A system brought heavy rain to the southern Midwest on Friday and Saturday. A front to the west will be a focal point for producing periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, which will favor the north with pockets of heavy rain and severe weather. Temperatures will be extremely hot while it is also getting very humid as well. By the end of the week, the humidity will likely be too much, causing pop-up showers and thunderstorms across the region. A weak system slowly moving through this weekend will be the end of the extreme heat, but it will still feel like summer next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will still move through at times into next week as well. Overall, this is a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN SUMMER HEAT

Showers became isolated to non-existent in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend while temperatures rose. A front will be stuck from the eastern Dakotas to the Texas Panhandle and tend to waffle for much of the week. Temperatures will be excessive east of the front while it will be a little cooler and drier to the west of it. The front will be a point where showers could develop this week, but models have very little. That will cause some stresses for some areas that continue to be drier, even after last week's rainfall. A system moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down several degrees. Shower potential will be very hit-or-miss, leading to some areas of good weather and some areas of poor weather for developing corn and soybeans. Those with wheat yet to harvest will have better opportunities to do so.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A strong system moved into the Northern Plains over the weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms and severe weather. Though the system will remain in the Canadian Prairies the next couple of days, some showers and thunderstorms will continue. Additional disturbances moving through the rest of the week will continue showers, keeping the pattern busy and helping to increase soil moisture and reduce drought. It'll stay mild in the west while it may be hot in the far eastern Dakotas this week.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS PAST WEEKEND

A big storm moved into the Canadian Prairies over the weekend with some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. The system will remain in the region through Wednesday before leaving. However, disturbances moving through behind the system will keep some showers going for the rest of the week and probably next week as well. The rainfall is overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of flooding will leave some wishing for drier weather.

HOTTER WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA THIS WEEK

It is hotter and drier in the Delta for the next few days, but moisture coming up from the Gulf will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms starting midweek and will get a little bit of a boost from a system moving through this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will then fall back closer to normal for next week. As long as some of this rain falls over the entire region, the conditions will not be too bad. However, if we do not see the forecast rainfall, then there could be some potential stress.

SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front brought some showers to southern Brazil over the weekend. It will remain in the south for the next several days as showers continue. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is maturing and the harvest has started. The rainfall will be more beneficial for winter wheat establishment, though.

HOT AND DRY ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Extreme heat continued into the weekend across Europe, though some relieving showers did hit some areas as well. It's not enough rain to recover from the record heat of the last week. Though temperatures will be falling as a couple of systems move through this week, the showers will be more concentrated in the east compared to the west. And it's likely for some extreme heat to return to western areas this weekend and into next week. This will particularly hurt corn and other summer crops in France, but should have impacts to adjacent areas as well.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region this week and next, but models have little rainfall and mostly for Ukraine. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth, and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. Drier weather this week will promote drydown and harvest for wheat across the south.

USUALLY FREQUENT RAIN IN AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Systems in both the west and east brought areas of showers to Australia over the weekend. The western system will get more showers into the southeast early this week. That will be followed by another system for midweek. This year's El Nino has yet to bring the drier influence it typically does, and winter wheat and canola are in largely good condition. However, El Nino's influence increases usually increases over the next couple of months, which may have a more damaging impact yet this season.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS CONTINUES IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeast China. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain have been promoting wheat and canola harvest, but showers will be increasing in July as the harvest winds down and summer crops continue to develop. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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