DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...112 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...25 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...KNOXVILLE, TN 1.99 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West with a ridge strengthening in the East. The ridge will contain the trough for the next few days, but a piece of it will move through Canada midweek. Additional pieces of the trough will continue eastward into the ridge through the rest of the week. Eventually, the main trough will move east this weekend while a ridge develops behind it in the West. This ridge may have a tendency to build northeast into central Canada, making the pattern a bit complicated for next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the American GFS stays a little farther west with the ridge than the European. I will use a blend, but favor the European just a little.

A system will be moving east through the country this weekend, spreading showers and thunderstorms for a lot of areas east of the Rockies. A couple of systems may move through the country next week, keeping somewhat active weather going. There will be a lot of areas that only see light rain or none at all, while only a few select areas are likely to get anything substantial. Models will have to work that out as time goes on. Temperatures should be falling slightly behind the weekend system, but it will still feel like summer next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong system moved into the region over the weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms and severe weather. Though the system will remain in the Canadian Prairies the next couple of days, some showers and thunderstorms will continue. Additional disturbances moving through the rest of the week will continue showers, keeping the pattern busy and helping to increase soil moisture and reduce drought.

It will stay mild in the west while it may be hot in the far eastern Dakotas this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers became isolated to non-existent over the weekend while temperatures rose. A front will be stuck from the eastern Dakotas to the Texas Panhandle and tend to waffle for much of the week. Temperatures will be excessive east of the front while it will be a little cooler and drier to the west of it. The front will be a point where showers could develop this week, but models have very little. That will cause some stresses for some areas that continue to be drier, even after last week's rainfall. A system moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down several degrees. Shower potential will be very hit-or-miss, leading to some areas of good weather and some areas of poor weather for developing corn and soybeans. Those with wheat yet to harvest will have better opportunities to do so.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain to the south on Friday and Saturday. A front to the west will be a focal point for producing periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, which will favor the north with pockets of heavy rain and severe weather. Temperatures will be extremely hot while it is also getting very humid as well. By the end of the week, the humidity will likely be too much, causing pop-up showers and thunderstorms across the region. A weak system slowly moving through this weekend will be the end of the extreme heat, but it will still feel like summer next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will still move through at times into next week as well. Overall, this is a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It is hotter and drier in the region for the next few days, but moisture coming up from the Gulf will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms starting midweek and will get a little bit of a boost from a system moving through this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will then fall back closer to normal for next week. As long as some of this rain falls over the entire region, the conditions will not be too bad. However, if we do not see the forecast rainfall, then there could be some potential stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A big storm moved in over the weekend with some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. The system will remain in the region through Tuesday before leaving. However, disturbances moving through behind the system will keep some showers going for the rest of the week and probably next week as well. The rainfall is overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of flooding will leave some wishing for drier weather.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front brought some showers to the south over the weekend. It will remain in the south for the next several days as showers continue. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is maturing and the harvest has started. The rainfall will be more beneficial for winter wheat establishment, though.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front went through this weekend, but very little precipitation developed. Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment, but very little is forecast this week or next, even though a few systems will be moving through.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat continued into the weekend, though some relieving showers did in some areas as well. It's not enough rain to recover from the record heat of the last week. Though temperatures will be falling as a couple of systems move through this week, the showers will be more concentrated in the east compared to the west. And it's possible for some extreme heat to return to western areas this weekend and into next week. This will particularly hurt corn and other summer crops in France, but should have impacts to adjacent areas as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A couple of systems will move through this week and next, but models have little rainfall and mostly for Ukraine. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn, the recent wet and cool weather have limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. Drier weather this week will promote drydown and harvest for wheat across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Systems in both the west and east brought areas of showers over the weekend. The western system will get more showers into the southeast early this week. That will be followed by another system for midweek. This year's El Nino has yet to bring the drier influence it typically does and winter wheat and canola are in largely good condition. However, El Nino's influence increases usually increases over the next couple of months, which may have a more damaging impact yet this season.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain have been promoting wheat and canola harvest, but showers will be increasing in July as the harvest winds down and summer crops continue to develop. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north.

Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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