Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain with mild temperatures across the Corn Belt but with a change to much warmer in the forecast, more rain in the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERY AND MILD FOR THE MIDWEST, HOTTER THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

The pattern stays active in the Midwest this week as a system rolls through for Tuesday through Thursday, and another goes through on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather is not out of the question, but should be tamer this week. Temperatures should remain mild as well. However, a warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much warmer temperatures next week. That may actually be beneficial as we are behind with growing degree days and could use some heat in some areas. The chances for rain will continue next week, too, giving little cause for concern with the increasing temperatures, at least in the short term.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system brought heavy rain and severe weather to the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. That resulted in some significant wind damage across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, unfavorable for both developing crops and wheat awaiting harvest. The front responsible will remain draped across the south where showers and thunderstorms may develop over the next couple of days. Additional systems moving to the north could bring more showers to other areas of the region for the remainder of the week as well. Temperatures will be cooler across the north but hotter south of that stalled front, creating mixed conditions for growing corn and soybeans. The pattern will trend warmer and drier with only spotty rain chances for next week, causing more areas of stress.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system spinning in the Northern Plains will continue showers for Tuesday. Additional small disturbances will bring some areas of showers the rest of the week. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread rain and potential severe weather that could linger into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, temperatures remain below normal into next week. That keeps stress low, but growth slow.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, STAYING COOL

Areas of heavy rain from the weekend continue to move through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday, while scattered showers continue afterward, boosting soil moisture in the region. A larger storm system will move in over the weekend with more widespread heavy rain chances into next week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow. Though the temperatures would be better if they were higher, and should be in early July, the continued rainfall in the region should be overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN IN THE DELTA

A stalled front continues to produce rain chances in the Delta over the next several days, keeping soil moisture high in most of the region, but also bringing potential for flooding in some areas. The front will finally lift northward this weekend and temperatures will increase while the pattern dries out. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well.

SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL

A front continues scattered showers in south-central Brazil through Wednesday. Some very cold air is moving into the south over the next couple of days. Though some patchy frost will be possible, it should not impact corn areas and will have no effect on the young wheat. Though some late-planted corn would benefit from the rain, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not. Another front will bring some showers in those same areas this weekend and early next week.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS EUROPE

Though some limited showers moved through Europe, it was largely dry over the weekend and temperatures continued to be quite hot in France. The chances for precipitation will be much lower this week while the heat spreads through more of the continent. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas late this week and weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish until maybe next week, causing stress.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers continued to be frequent in the Black Sea region over the weekend and will again this week as multiple fronts and systems move through. It may quiet down next week, but some areas of showers will continue. Heat will be building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. The warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Drier conditions are forecast in Australia for much of the week, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, getting most areas with showers over the next 7 days or so. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. The dry effect is more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeast China, which likely continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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