Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of heavy rain and severe weather across the Corn Belt and Gulf Coast with milder temperatures spreading through the U.S., more rain in the Canadian Prairies, and heat in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

Another strong system moved through the Midwest on Wednesday with some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Scattered showers continue behind the system into Saturday, but another strong system is likely to move through on Sunday with heavier rain, especially for the southern half of the region. Additional scattered showers are forecast for various points next week. Recent heavy rainfall has been good for improving or maintaining soil moisture in a lot of areas, but has led to some flooding issues as well. Milder temperatures in the region combined with the frequent rainfall are overall favorable for corn and soybean development, but unfavorable for wheat harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Several fronts have moved through the Central and Southern Plains this week, but with limited showers. That continues at the end of this week, too. A better chance will come this weekend into early next week with a system and front passing through. Additional systems and fronts are forecast to bring at least some showers through on a couple of occasions next week. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and are likely to stick around through next week, keeping stress low for areas that have had less frequent and intense rain. The combination of milder temperatures and occasional rain are largely favorable, though drought and some areas that are missed could still see stress.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HEAVIER THIS WEEKEND

Reinforcing shots of cooler air continue to be frequent across the Northern Plains through next week, bringing periods of showers each time. Though the showers are not likely to be very intense, the frequency should help to maintain soil moisture. The milder air will keep stress down, but the lack of warmth will keep growth slow.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MAY PRODUCE MORE FLOODING

An upper-level trough that has been bringing widespread rainfall for the last 10 days will be moving out this weekend. However, more disturbances are forecast to move through the region this weekend and next week, continuing the frequent showers that have kept soil moisture high. Flooding may be a concern in some areas. Temperatures will remain mild through next week, which is causing growth to be slow. That may be an issue for later this summer and early fall if some colder air comes in early.

FRONTS, TROPICAL LOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN IN THE DELTA

Tropical Storm Arthur made it into southern Louisiana on Wednesday night. Its remnants continue across Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday with extremely heavy rain. A front settling in from the north over the next few days and a system moving through the Midwest on Sunday will bring periods of showers to the region through early next week. Additional rainfall is likely from a couple of additional systems next week. Though flooding may be an issue at times, the continued chances for rain should support soybean and cotton development.

MORE RAIN COMING TO BRAZIL

A front will move through southern and central Brazil Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and another is forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. Any rain that falls will help some late corn and vegetative wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to be much help for corn. Colder air that will move in behind the second front may cause some frosts over wheat areas in the far south, but would not be damaging. Corn areas are not at much of a risk for frost though it will be cooler to limit stress on what remains of filling corn.

FRANCE, OTHER PARTS OF EUROPE HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Though a few showers will go through at times, it continues to be drier in most of Europe through next week. Heat is building across Germany and Poland into the weekend, but France has been and will continue to see the most extended heat, which is likely well into next week. That could have some impact on wheat, but will have a more unfavorable effect on corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas of the continent are more likely to see some showers and cooler temperatures as fronts pass through going through next week.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers have been frequent in the Black Sea region over the last couple of months and continue this week as systems pass through rather frequently. Though the showers aren't unwelcome, some warmer temperatures and dryness would be preferred in many areas for maturing wheat and developing corn.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

A system continues to slowly move through eastern areas of Australia over the next day or two with scattered showers. It will be drier for most areas next week, but some isolated showers may still move through. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or so. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue in northeast China at times through next week, being overall favorable for corn and soybean development. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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